Check this link out Rare Earth Index
GLTA Lostoutwest
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Saturday, February 19, 2011
Churning Market
With the Venture and the Toronto continuing to power up... it looks like a good place to play... however, on level II... the picture is much different as individual stocks in the small cap category continue to be extremely overbought with any up move trends having been established long ago.... From a basic charting perspective it would be on the tip of some pundits to lip the saying "buy when the trend is up and strong".... easy to say and much more effective a general application to apply if you had the skills to spot the broad market reversal in commodities around the end of August beginning of September 2010... Easy money... at the beginning.
This screen shot shows a strong looking trend but even a casual glimpse should be able to spot the waning momentum... things are setting up for a breakout that will be hindsight...
Here's a link to the study showing more detail to evaluate trend and swing considerations... it is not used for taking a position other than the initial buy pattern demonstrated in July as a low risk entry point.. the exit would be an obvious break in the trend... the indicators are starting to show chinks, but overall it looks strong, but overbought. CDNX Trend A side benefit included in this study for the more complete picture would be the lower indicators demonstrating picking dips that are reliable as long as the trend is up...
You could use this setup for individual stocks.
In reality most of the easy money is already made with a lot of the individual speculative small caps rallying for the better part of 90 to 120 days or more... nothing goes up forever... and as I do a lot of research from a speculative sentiment point of view... comparing prices to other issues of the same quality... I can tell you there is a lot of confusion out there (implying pending volatility approaching "Go Away in May") such that many issues with nothing but hopes are priced the same as issues that have a modem of strong speculative considerations... and vice versa... It is a perfect setting for panic considering the relative bullish high or a melt up.... be prepared... Don't listen to the taking heads... they are protecting their biased interest jobs.
My point.... disconnect and focus on discipline with a strong emphasis on technical trend breaking as a precautionary note taking a neutral position if you feel threatened... protect the pile... if you buy... buy only at points of oversold after confirmation to reduce risk magnifying gain... keeping tight mental (or real) stops... and don't change your plan for an exit strategy if your targets are hit... second guessing is a most dangerous game. You don't learn from the experience... as much as it can produce extraordinary losses if your in a position of profit (through luck or skill)... getting out with a profit never lost anybody any money.
If you consider the two comparatives... trend rising while momentum is ranging.... is a situation where confirmation is out of balance.... one of the divergence indications will move to confirm the other... one way or the other....
If you were watching level II in any one particular issue... trying to jockey for a position (now at this moment)... while it is true the trend is up for a hold position till the trend breaks... In this case relative overbought is a mitigating factor.... the law of averages says that the chance of running into a curve is on the same plain as Murphy's Law.... If anything can go wrong it most certainly will.... Assuming a position on a moving train 3/4s to the apparent destination is an endeavor that has.... simply put..... less return potential for profit at a much higher risk as a timing factor strategy... especially when buying unproven speculative issues with no cash flow... As an example of a personal alert for me.... if my trading average starts to drop... I don't consider it that I've lost my touch... My average is my touch.... it is a personal alert that my strategy is failing due to a changing environment that is not easily seen as much as it is felt...... and as an averaging strategy.. my technique is lacking in favourable odds...
That's a conservative description of the conditions out there... Trading on sentiment (chasing) is producing a lot more razor cuts for this chartist than it should and is my own personal alert.... to be more selective... disconnect from the sentiment motivators that drive love for a stock... focus on technical trend analysis and practice increasing caution... or stick to a long approach and turn off the computer.
This is a hold market and not the time to be jumping on the wake of every gust of wind that flys.
This leads me to an observation that if the stocks I'm watching are churning with little gains... what ARE the stocks... that are doing the broad market lifting... and how can I find them....?
I'm investigating some computerized trading systems.... that if I have any success with... I will be recommending....
GLTA Lostoutwest
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Here's a link to the study showing more detail to evaluate trend and swing considerations... it is not used for taking a position other than the initial buy pattern demonstrated in July as a low risk entry point.. the exit would be an obvious break in the trend... the indicators are starting to show chinks, but overall it looks strong, but overbought. CDNX Trend A side benefit included in this study for the more complete picture would be the lower indicators demonstrating picking dips that are reliable as long as the trend is up...
You could use this setup for individual stocks.
In reality most of the easy money is already made with a lot of the individual speculative small caps rallying for the better part of 90 to 120 days or more... nothing goes up forever... and as I do a lot of research from a speculative sentiment point of view... comparing prices to other issues of the same quality... I can tell you there is a lot of confusion out there (implying pending volatility approaching "Go Away in May") such that many issues with nothing but hopes are priced the same as issues that have a modem of strong speculative considerations... and vice versa... It is a perfect setting for panic considering the relative bullish high or a melt up.... be prepared... Don't listen to the taking heads... they are protecting their biased interest jobs.
My point.... disconnect and focus on discipline with a strong emphasis on technical trend breaking as a precautionary note taking a neutral position if you feel threatened... protect the pile... if you buy... buy only at points of oversold after confirmation to reduce risk magnifying gain... keeping tight mental (or real) stops... and don't change your plan for an exit strategy if your targets are hit... second guessing is a most dangerous game. You don't learn from the experience... as much as it can produce extraordinary losses if your in a position of profit (through luck or skill)... getting out with a profit never lost anybody any money.
If you consider the two comparatives... trend rising while momentum is ranging.... is a situation where confirmation is out of balance.... one of the divergence indications will move to confirm the other... one way or the other....
If you were watching level II in any one particular issue... trying to jockey for a position (now at this moment)... while it is true the trend is up for a hold position till the trend breaks... In this case relative overbought is a mitigating factor.... the law of averages says that the chance of running into a curve is on the same plain as Murphy's Law.... If anything can go wrong it most certainly will.... Assuming a position on a moving train 3/4s to the apparent destination is an endeavor that has.... simply put..... less return potential for profit at a much higher risk as a timing factor strategy... especially when buying unproven speculative issues with no cash flow... As an example of a personal alert for me.... if my trading average starts to drop... I don't consider it that I've lost my touch... My average is my touch.... it is a personal alert that my strategy is failing due to a changing environment that is not easily seen as much as it is felt...... and as an averaging strategy.. my technique is lacking in favourable odds...
That's a conservative description of the conditions out there... Trading on sentiment (chasing) is producing a lot more razor cuts for this chartist than it should and is my own personal alert.... to be more selective... disconnect from the sentiment motivators that drive love for a stock... focus on technical trend analysis and practice increasing caution... or stick to a long approach and turn off the computer.
This is a hold market and not the time to be jumping on the wake of every gust of wind that flys.
This leads me to an observation that if the stocks I'm watching are churning with little gains... what ARE the stocks... that are doing the broad market lifting... and how can I find them....?
I'm investigating some computerized trading systems.... that if I have any success with... I will be recommending....
GLTA Lostoutwest
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Wednesday, February 16, 2011
Update RA.V
I have noticed some trading patterns that I have yet to put a name to, and I think we have a bit of time to spec out an entry point based on level II observation... longer term .30 cents is what I would speculate is very hard core support, and to break it... we would have to be in some deep doo doo... as such to get a position there would be fleeting at best... such that if .30 cents were to avail itself.... we would be asking why... so in the short term I will stick to my .37 to 39 cent best in... however, I will be monitoring level II to see if I can pick up any bullish patterns developing which will make cause for moving the entry point higher over the next week or so...
GLTA Lostoutwest
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GLTA Lostoutwest
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Update URC.V
Nice gain from the dip .28 cents to the new recent high of .40 cents... looks like the chart and Level II were bang on for the moment... I'm thinking a strong hand approach would be in the .34 to 35 cent area... for a position to look for as support... short term...
GLTA Lostoutwest
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GLTA Lostoutwest
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Update XAG.V
Some board members on SH Xtierra Inc are debating the issue of an equivalent 140 ozs of silver... IMOP they are informative.... and it is interesting, but moot, and not a factor that will move the price one way or the other... the net 40 million ounces at the market cap it is right now is undervalued in comparison to the other mentions of the buyout list... whether that is motivation enough to move the price... it is fairly safe to say that the issue is solid enough (cash on hand... Sprott and others put in 4 million) to chance averaging in on an uptrend which it is in... let's not forget that silver is in a backwardation state... and calls for $50 per ounce in 2011 as a result are being tossed around... make this the potential best mover out of the bunch... support is pretty solid looking at .37 cents and should the price drift down ... it would be an ideal spot for taking a position... however... it will take a few days to see if the possibility of a position on the cusp is still there going forward...
A note... if you try and access their website... it has been hacked... kinda weird... I have sent them an e-mail letting them know... it appears to pose no threat... but if you were concerned.... and have hit the site... simply shut down your computer (right off) then power back on ( be quick about manipulating the F-8 button like in starting as soon as you power back on... waiting can cause you to miss the sequence)... pushing the F-8 button repeatedly in a rhythmic steady medium fast (every 1/2 second approx) pattern until the computer boots to a loading selection screen... and select the last known good configuration... (assuming you haven't shut the computer down yet......... if you have..... then you have lost the last good configuration... it's a one time last chance to fix just about anything) and continue the boot by selecting the last known good configuration by arrowing to the spot... then pressing enter... In case you ever get hit by a drive buy virus, or are suspicious you picked up a virus... doing this must be done as the next boot after shutting down.. if there are any boots in between getting the virus and rebooting... you will not get the last good configuration.. if your on the ball and get the last good configuration... your computer wipes any malevolent changes by resetting the registry to the previous state. Bye Bye virus... just like you never got hit. Things Symantic doesn't want you to know.
GLTA Lostoutwest
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A note... if you try and access their website... it has been hacked... kinda weird... I have sent them an e-mail letting them know... it appears to pose no threat... but if you were concerned.... and have hit the site... simply shut down your computer (right off) then power back on ( be quick about manipulating the F-8 button like in starting as soon as you power back on... waiting can cause you to miss the sequence)... pushing the F-8 button repeatedly in a rhythmic steady medium fast (every 1/2 second approx) pattern until the computer boots to a loading selection screen... and select the last known good configuration... (assuming you haven't shut the computer down yet......... if you have..... then you have lost the last good configuration... it's a one time last chance to fix just about anything) and continue the boot by selecting the last known good configuration by arrowing to the spot... then pressing enter... In case you ever get hit by a drive buy virus, or are suspicious you picked up a virus... doing this must be done as the next boot after shutting down.. if there are any boots in between getting the virus and rebooting... you will not get the last good configuration.. if your on the ball and get the last good configuration... your computer wipes any malevolent changes by resetting the registry to the previous state. Bye Bye virus... just like you never got hit. Things Symantic doesn't want you to know.
GLTA Lostoutwest
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Update TKO.TO
Checkout the Special focus chart on the right side bar for a recent chart... with selling for $5.98 less than half the NAV $16.00 which includes new plans for prosperity.. ........... looks like the fear of a repeat of the shenanigans experienced a while back is losing ground as the chart continues to improve... the sell off recently at 6.00 was made up mostly of traders IMOP... $ 7.00 plus soon...
We broke $6.00 and once solidly through..... this should pick up speed...
Over time hard to say how long... but the potential to trade above the Nav is reasonable... and along the way as opportunity presents itself... we should be able to trade some good waves... the fundamentals make this issue a long term consideration...
GLTA Lostoutwest
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We broke $6.00 and once solidly through..... this should pick up speed...
Over time hard to say how long... but the potential to trade above the Nav is reasonable... and along the way as opportunity presents itself... we should be able to trade some good waves... the fundamentals make this issue a long term consideration...
GLTA Lostoutwest
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Two new mentions XAG.V and RA.V
I have been researching two new potential picks that appear to be ready for taking a position based on technical analysis... and recent share activity..... both appear to be ready for some type of move up.... each for their own particular aspects... and are demonstrating some interesting charting qualities... I shall be updating the Public Chart list first; upon doing so, will be back to the blog to follow up,,, they have been chosen because they are near a point of entry that allows for a maximum approach to risk control, as well are in an uptrend that is consolidating... along with the price is low which... is needed to stay out of the very overbought scenario of the general broad market ... hopefully avoiding dramatic reactions to the downside if the broad market should slip unexpected....
XAG.V .... a lower bollinger touch .37 to .39 would be ideal... but the low price in relation to this just released by Midas letter top ten silver buyouts may flavor an up move... due to the fact that out of the mentions... this one is the best priced chart wise for comparing to other silver issues as being comparable for the same reasons and extremely undervalued... and silver has been getting some super press lately for a major move up overtime due to backwardation...
The other is...
RA.V a rare earth pick that has demonstrated a spike on support... such that it would lend itself to a buy in the .35 to .40 cent area as an ideal position that would lower risk for entry ... I suggest checking the boards Rare Earth and comparing your thoughts with mine over the next post as I will touch on RA.V and XAG.V in more detail...
GLTA Lostoutwest
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XAG.V .... a lower bollinger touch .37 to .39 would be ideal... but the low price in relation to this just released by Midas letter top ten silver buyouts may flavor an up move... due to the fact that out of the mentions... this one is the best priced chart wise for comparing to other silver issues as being comparable for the same reasons and extremely undervalued... and silver has been getting some super press lately for a major move up overtime due to backwardation...
The other is...
RA.V a rare earth pick that has demonstrated a spike on support... such that it would lend itself to a buy in the .35 to .40 cent area as an ideal position that would lower risk for entry ... I suggest checking the boards Rare Earth and comparing your thoughts with mine over the next post as I will touch on RA.V and XAG.V in more detail...
GLTA Lostoutwest
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Monday, February 14, 2011
A point of interest CZY.V
I have have been hesitant in calling buys... this being more of a hold type of market... but this morning in the interest of showing something that will probably be hindsight... is 2 rather large orders that were executed in the open market... most people would call it accumulation... and take it as a positive spin... however that may be a bit premature... as an order this size almost reeks of Iinstitution.
I have seen this type of thing many times... and my experience has been different.. but who knows... maybe this time...
What I expect will take place is that those two big buys will show up as asks either today or tomorrow... maybe not as large individually... but non the less... the asks should thicken up as these two blocks are put up for sale... business as usual... I do own some CZY...
GLTA Lostoutwest
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I have seen this type of thing many times... and my experience has been different.. but who knows... maybe this time...
GLTA Lostoutwest
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Sunday, February 13, 2011
Markets Here and Now
Recently I have posted some rhetoric that shows some days where the markets have gapped down... I think I need to add that as of Friday in spite of the Quirky ticks the markets have been making... Technical analysis which comprises of more than what is shown in the Stockcharts Public List list shows the Market has remarkable resilience.
I have some other studies I apply that are pretty boring albeit from a different type of source study to cross reference, and support a conclusion... one way or the other...
It is amazing to watch the some 200 live level II stock watches bump a few cents, and be sold down as quick... ranging in real time...there is a lot of distribution going on... it may well be that the distribution wanes in the name of diminished supply during this period of seasonal support.. and for a period, the bulls may gain some ground in their defiant act...
However... even if the trend appears strong.... make no bones about it... there is negative divergence.... serious negative divergence.... Watching the gap downs which are more prevalent lately is a definite change from early in the trend wherein there was no such waves present after the initial kick off... for many weeks, and a quick look leaves no doubt about the visible wobble in the last 1/2 as compared to the first 1/2 of the chart trend up to this point for the Venture with the last portion of the wobble getting more prone to volatility...
The TSX in comparison has been on a visible wobble all the way up... trending indicators have never been as defiant as the Venture... suggesting more of a normal type of steady progression... that while not as strong in the chartable trending indicators is likely more stable in the fact that there is little change in the character from one end of the trend to now... so all are used to the wiggle...
In either case they both show no sign of breaking the uptrend when studied in trend analysis studies, and appear to be ready to froth their way and churn..... at these and higher heights... It also seems that the January pressure is easing off... fuelling a potential spurt to a possible blow off...
I personally don't believe in the recovering economy spin... I'm not predicting any direction, just making note of the ambient direction as of now... I try and react rather than predict... and the market doesn't really move on recovery anyway... as sentiment is the motivator... when the moment comes... the Venture is likely to be the one first, and this is not about a commodities bull run being over.... it is about a transfer of money.....
For now we have a period of time in the 12 month cycle that is said to be the usual 4 best months of the year supporting the market... Come Middle of May... the natural cycle will be to the tune of a traditional Go Away in May, such that if the markets blow off ... it may be that this May will be a repeat of last May...
If the markets blow off.. It likely won't be a crash hopefully.... but it may well be a serious correction of consequence.
I have no knowledge of the particulars of anybodies investment style and portfolio... but it would be advisable to think of preserving any wealth in this run up... as a priority... devising some kind of action you might take should what could be the natural course of a traditional market timing motivator take place .
On the flip side.......... If the natural Go Away in May is already filled and spoken for with unknown reasons, and destined to take part in a blow off to a new high... go with the flow...
If it doesn't turn down.... at least you were prepared...
GLTA Lostoutwest
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I have some other studies I apply that are pretty boring albeit from a different type of source study to cross reference, and support a conclusion... one way or the other...
It is amazing to watch the some 200 live level II stock watches bump a few cents, and be sold down as quick... ranging in real time...there is a lot of distribution going on... it may well be that the distribution wanes in the name of diminished supply during this period of seasonal support.. and for a period, the bulls may gain some ground in their defiant act...
However... even if the trend appears strong.... make no bones about it... there is negative divergence.... serious negative divergence.... Watching the gap downs which are more prevalent lately is a definite change from early in the trend wherein there was no such waves present after the initial kick off... for many weeks, and a quick look leaves no doubt about the visible wobble in the last 1/2 as compared to the first 1/2 of the chart trend up to this point for the Venture with the last portion of the wobble getting more prone to volatility...
The TSX in comparison has been on a visible wobble all the way up... trending indicators have never been as defiant as the Venture... suggesting more of a normal type of steady progression... that while not as strong in the chartable trending indicators is likely more stable in the fact that there is little change in the character from one end of the trend to now... so all are used to the wiggle...
In either case they both show no sign of breaking the uptrend when studied in trend analysis studies, and appear to be ready to froth their way and churn..... at these and higher heights... It also seems that the January pressure is easing off... fuelling a potential spurt to a possible blow off...
I personally don't believe in the recovering economy spin... I'm not predicting any direction, just making note of the ambient direction as of now... I try and react rather than predict... and the market doesn't really move on recovery anyway... as sentiment is the motivator... when the moment comes... the Venture is likely to be the one first, and this is not about a commodities bull run being over.... it is about a transfer of money.....
For now we have a period of time in the 12 month cycle that is said to be the usual 4 best months of the year supporting the market... Come Middle of May... the natural cycle will be to the tune of a traditional Go Away in May, such that if the markets blow off ... it may be that this May will be a repeat of last May...
If the markets blow off.. It likely won't be a crash hopefully.... but it may well be a serious correction of consequence.
I have no knowledge of the particulars of anybodies investment style and portfolio... but it would be advisable to think of preserving any wealth in this run up... as a priority... devising some kind of action you might take should what could be the natural course of a traditional market timing motivator take place .
On the flip side.......... If the natural Go Away in May is already filled and spoken for with unknown reasons, and destined to take part in a blow off to a new high... go with the flow...
If it doesn't turn down.... at least you were prepared...
GLTA Lostoutwest
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