Recently I have posted some rhetoric that shows some days where the markets have gapped down... I think I need to add that as of Friday in spite of the Quirky ticks the markets have been making... Technical analysis which comprises of more than what is shown in the Stockcharts Public List list shows the Market has remarkable resilience.
I have some other studies I apply that are pretty boring albeit from a different type of source study to cross reference, and support a conclusion... one way or the other...
It is amazing to watch the some 200 live level II stock watches bump a few cents, and be sold down as quick... ranging in real time...there is a lot of distribution going on... it may well be that the distribution wanes in the name of diminished supply during this period of seasonal support.. and for a period, the bulls may gain some ground in their defiant act...
However... even if the trend appears strong.... make no bones about it... there is negative divergence.... serious negative divergence.... Watching the gap downs which are more prevalent lately is a definite change from early in the trend wherein there was no such waves present after the initial kick off... for many weeks, and a quick look leaves no doubt about the visible wobble in the last 1/2 as compared to the first 1/2 of the chart trend up to this point for the Venture with the last portion of the wobble getting more prone to volatility...
The TSX in comparison has been on a visible wobble all the way up... trending indicators have never been as defiant as the Venture... suggesting more of a normal type of steady progression... that while not as strong in the chartable trending indicators is likely more stable in the fact that there is little change in the character from one end of the trend to now... so all are used to the wiggle...
In either case they both show no sign of breaking the uptrend when studied in trend analysis studies, and appear to be ready to froth their way and churn..... at these and higher heights... It also seems that the January pressure is easing off... fuelling a potential spurt to a possible blow off...
I personally don't believe in the recovering economy spin... I'm not predicting any direction, just making note of the ambient direction as of now... I try and react rather than predict... and the market doesn't really move on recovery anyway... as sentiment is the motivator... when the moment comes... the Venture is likely to be the one first, and this is not about a commodities bull run being over.... it is about a transfer of money.....
For now we have a period of time in the 12 month cycle that is said to be the usual 4 best months of the year supporting the market... Come Middle of May... the natural cycle will be to the tune of a traditional Go Away in May, such that if the markets blow off ... it may be that this May will be a repeat of last May...
If the markets blow off.. It likely won't be a crash hopefully.... but it may well be a serious correction of consequence.
I have no knowledge of the particulars of anybodies investment style and portfolio... but it would be advisable to think of preserving any wealth in this run up... as a priority... devising some kind of action you might take should what could be the natural course of a traditional market timing motivator take place .
On the flip side.......... If the natural Go Away in May is already filled and spoken for with unknown reasons, and destined to take part in a blow off to a new high... go with the flow...
If it doesn't turn down.... at least you were prepared...
GLTA Lostoutwest
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