Current Trade

Thursday, September 15, 2011

TVC.V analyzed

The attraction for TVC.V

-over 7 million in the bank ... nice
-potential for needing to finance is in the distant future... nice no surprises
-low price... right down at the bottom... verified in the charts
-level II shows accumulation with huge supporting bids against a much smaller ask... could be something that gets wasted pretty quick
-193 million + if you do fully diluted is not a concern... admittedly it would be nicer at half that... but, the 7,000,000.00 plus in the bank estimated for the end of the physical year takes the scare out...
- a JV would come with lots of warning and likely a higher price.
-the low price has not moved yet.... very important for making a lower risk trade with the potential to go long... so this a medium term hold with takeout potential...
-some strong fundamental considerations
-googling East Slovakia calms the nerves... no dictators and a friendly government with policies for developing home grown Uranium...

Having said all that... it comes down to some good pop potential that could produce a 3 bagger by Dec.

That article of the hostile HAT buyout got some people thinking and this stock price run is right at the gate... where she goes nobody knows, but from my perspective... it looks north from a pretty safe advantage from the technical look... it may even prove a good longer hold if the options holders give it some room.

TVC.V charted



GLTA Lostoutwest


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TVC.V

The uranium sector has had renewed interest with Cameco's hostile bid for Hathor...

A strategy to employ would be to consider takeover targets of note in a down market... the pop comes with the offer, so don't expect a broad market swing... TVC.V is worth considering due to it's low price...

Level II suggest strong support @ .105 on down... with the asks on a much lower showing suggesting a pop of some kind over the next 4 months.

Consider as well STM.TO

Takeovers

Any string of pump that makes sense under the present market conditions is worth considering to hold onto

GLTA Lostoutwest

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Smallcap Folly TMM.TO

There sure is a lotta talk out there....  so... I did a tiptoe through all my watch lists, and took a close look at the results of all the talk that was previous to the latest crash or doldrums correction... which ever you prefer to call it.

It leaves me to make this deduction... that talk is cheap, and walking the walk is non-existent for most of the parties (stocks) doing the talk... (promotion)

As well... most of the guru's promoting a particular stock have absolutely no charting skills it seems, (believe them, or believe my lying charting eye's), and in addition, they continue to talk as though they are on the long hold side of things which will all come out in the end.... which, if the talk was anywhere near true... for the majority of pump... we'd all be rich.

Truth is... looking over my Portfolios of watch lists I saw a lot of...

-  Name changes
-  Stock prices from the previous loudest talk... at near all time lows
-  Many of the issues no longer track in my portfolios (either changed name or went south)
-  In all cases.. the ones (stocks) that made something of themselves didn't make gains in the magnitude to prevent losses that sucked the profit to average gains of  -100% losses, or worse.

The moral of the story is that there is not enough people in the market.. and that broad market swings to the upside really contain very little of the retail populace... the swing is orchestrated by professional trading houses... and when they want to short... there is little enough resistance to stop them...

The long hold approach based on talk is a losing proposition... specially where diversification is applied to small caps.

The price of a stock has no relation to the talk (financials, speculation and projects) except that when the insiders (sellers) have enough profits to lock in... they will sell into the crowd ... when they sell all they need, and crowd has been flushed out... the Phoenix's rise out of dust in the magnitude of less than 2% survivors is those stocks that have captured the minimal supply of retail buyers that  swarm the issue.

For the most part they (retail investors) are in it by a lucky stroke based on solid speculation (there is a place for solid speculation).

The luck part is that the insiders have run out of paper for the moment and the lid is off the pressure cooker... hence we get those what the... Huh!... stocks that buck the down trend with all the bull board posters congratulating themselves on their unfailing love and prophetic insight. It really is a crap shoot.

I use one stock that illustrates the point   ,,,,,    NDM.TO ... even with the goods... the price moves to the tune of the insiders.

There are lots more good solid specs, but only a few investors to swarm them... so the reason for the long slow haul up after the initial pump becomes clearer.

Having said that I am now looking over TMM.TO which is showing an emerging trend...

In the next post which will be the lead into an updated chart on TMM.TO where I will expect that you have researched  the latest news reports so that you can connect the commentary on the chart.

In reality it is no way a comparison to NDM... however, how high the price goes is anybodies guess.

It's pretty choppy in a down market... but if the charting holds out... the best entry point if it can be achieved by targeting is 2.70 for the least amount of risk at a support junction.

It would have been nice to have been on it from the beginning, but the test for the moment has been the summer doldrums and it seems that the coming period has potential for more upside after this back fill.

It did a nice move off  $2.20... considering the market doldrums of which the paper seems to be ebb and tide of retail traders for the most part and if that speculation is true 2.60 won't break...


GLTA Lostoutwest

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