Current Trade

Saturday, February 28, 2009

Sirius SIRI

We are showing a weekly breakout and considering the money flowing into this issue... at the very least, this lottery ticket is worth a gamble... a few 100 shares (500 board lots) in spite of the currency exchange seems a no-brainer for a gambler... of course if you really like to gamble... add another 0. Because of the Reverse split, we are on a quick flip.

We're in for A SMALL affordable lottery ticket loss. The previous posted NR was on Feb 17 2009, and while it's been slow, and a bit choppy, we see some positive divergence in the indicators that suggests some volatility to come that should provide some opportunity for a profitable trade and who knows, maybe something that divests into unseen long term opportunity.... read the releases closely.

Consider the infrastructure... Satellite delivery system in place... HMMMM!


GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader

StockCharts Public Chart List


Please read our Complete Disclosure

Sirius SIRI

The following is a cut and paste from Globe:

______________________________________________

Sirius XM Avoids Bankruptcy But Hurdles Remain

13:20 EST Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Sirius XM Radio Inc. (SIRI) and its chief executive, Mel Karmazin, gained a new lease on life Tuesday with Liberty Media Corp. and its controlling shareholder and chairman, John Malone, as the new landlord.

Liberty agreed to invest $530 million in the form of high-interest loans - including $250 million on Tuesday - to Sirius XM in exchange for stock and seats on the company's board.

In doing so, Malone blocked rival satellite mogul Charles Ergen from taking control of satellite radio and gained his own path toward a strategic partnership with the company. Shares of Sirius XM lived to trade another day but remain underneath a crushing debt load, a lack of profitability and slowing subscriber growth.

"With this investment, Liberty is making a statement that it doesn't intend to let Sirius go bankrupt and they will help the company meet its debt obligations in some way, shape or form," said Frederick Moran, analyst with the Stanford Group.

"Karmazin has rescued Sirius XM from the verge of bankruptcy and its shareholders now have a second chance to salvage some value in their stock, but the company still faces meaningful, fundamental hurdles in terms of growth and profit creation," Moran said.

Sirius XM's shares traded up 6 cents after the deal was announced Tuesday morning to 17 cents. The stock has lost 97% of its value in the last year on rising concerns about its debt load.

Sirius XM warned investors last week that it faced a possible bankruptcy filing as early as Tuesday if it couldn't reach a deal to meet its mounting debt obligations, including bonds that mature Tuesday and are majority-owned by Ergen, who was also negotiating with Sirius XM over a deal for control of the company, according to the Wall Street Journal.

While Ergen failed in his bid to control the satellite radio industry, he presumably logged a handsome profit on his bond holdings in Sirius XM as bankruptcy fears faded on Tuesday. The company faces more debt maturities in May and December, but those bonds rallied Tuesday amid renewed confidence that it will meet its obligations.

Marc Lumpkin, a spokesman for EchoStar Corp. (SATS), which is controlled by Ergen, declined to comment for this story.

The fortunes of satellite radio are now enmeshed in the U.S. auto industry, where major companies like General Motors Corp. (GM), Ford Motor Co. (F) and Chrysler LLC have deals to manufacture cars equipped for Sirius XM's products and are facing possible bankruptcies of their own. While subscriber growth for the sole provider of satellite radio service has continued despite the onslaught of a global financial crisis and economic downturn, it has slowed considerably.

Miller Tabak analyst David Joyce predicts that Sirius XM can reach break-even in free cash flow in 2010 and bottom-line profitability several years after that.

"Sirius XM's ability to grow subscribers and revenue in a difficult financial and auto market is indicative of how listeners view this as a must-have service, " Liberty Media Chief Executive Greg Maffei said in a press release.

Stanford's Moran said Liberty's investment in Sirius XM is a low-risk way for the company to gain an interest in its assets.

"From a financial standpoint, the terms are so favorable to [Liberty] that they're essentially protected even if the stock becomes worthless because they're taking a risk in the form of debt obligations with high interest rates," Moran said.

Liberty's deal with Sirius XM will end up giving it 12.5 million shares of preferred stock in the satellite radio company, convertible into 40% of its common stock. Liberty will also receive seats on Sirius XM's board, and Malone and Maffei are expected to be one of the new board members.

Under the agreement, Sirius XM will get a $280 million senior secured loan from Liberty, $250 million of which will be funded Tuesday. The proceeds will be used to pay down $171.6 million of debt due Tuesday, with the rest going to general purposes like working capital.

The second phase of the plan provides a loan of $150 million to XM Satellite Radio, acquired last year by Sirius after a torturous regulatory approval process. Liberty also has offered to buy up to $100 million of the loans outstanding under XM's current credit agreements from lenders.

Liberty's deal marked a victory for Malone over Ergen, who controls EchoStar and Dish Network Corp. (DISH) - the chief satellite television rival to DirecTV Group Inc. (DTV), which is majority-owned by Liberty Media. Both men are based in Englewood, Colo., and have a reputation as tough, savvy dealmakers.

Karmazin, meanwhile, played Ergen and Malone off each other in his own bid to salvage his substantial equity holdings in Sirius XM and his legacy as the company's leader. Going forward, Karmazin will be operating under the watchful eyes of Malone and Maffei, which may pose a new challenge to Sirius XM's embattled CEO in his long-shot bid to revive the company.

Liberty Media, whose assets are broken up into three tracking stocks, said its investment in Sirius XM will be attributed to Liberty Capital (LCAPA), and the deal won't affect the timing of its planned split-off of a portion of Liberty Entertainment (LMDIA), which holds the company's 52% stake in satellite television provider DirecTV.

"[Liberty is] making a play on the satellite radio assets, which could be a strategic benefit down the road to DirecTV, which already delivers satellite radio access through its service," Moran said.

Shares of Liberty Capital recently slipped 4 cents to $5.45, while shares of Liberty Entertainment fell 4.1% to $18.30. The company's third tracking stock, Liberty Interactive (LINTA), was down 3% to $3.21.

Collins Stewart analyst Thomas Eagan said the sell-off in shares of Liberty Entertainment is a buying opportunity.

"LMDIA is currently trading at a 30% discount to its net asset value," said Eagan. "We expect this level to narrow as the spin-off approaches."

-By Nat Worden, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5216; nat.worden@dowjones.com

(Kerry E. Grace contributed to this report)


(END) Dow Jones Newswires
02-17-09 1319ET
Copyright (c) 2009 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.


GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader

StockCharts Public Chart List


Please read our Complete Disclosure

PDN.TO

WE think PDN is a good long term buy. We have been bullish about this mid term up trend, however, technical indicators have been suggesting that we are near a breakdown or a breakout bounce off the last recent low @ $2.12.

At $2.40 now which is well below the last highest high that we double topped on, we don't feel a pressing need to trade unless we see strong indications during the next week.

Just as concerning, is the potential to move to lower prices as indicated by the price position moving to the right and to a lower level than the last ringed bottom and on a downward slope of the lower bollinger, where the price broke through. This is a characteristic of lower bollinger touch breakdowns. The downward sloping bollinger and price move to the right and following the bollinger is scary.

Ringed candle lows set benchmarks for support levels and we broke it, at the very least suggesting weakness of the price bounce,. so be alert for a top on this present reaction bounce and because we have sold off a lot of resistance, we have A CHANCE OF SPIKING to a super top, of which I'm very sure will be a good opportunity to swing.

To follow the line of thought completely... follow this link...
The Big Bounce


GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader

StockCharts Public Chart List


Please read our Complete Disclosure

Friday, February 27, 2009

Friday's are unpredictable

We are having second thoughts on a PDN.TO position, because of the pre-market on Globe, the weak posture PDN is displaying, and this is Friday, we feel that any spike off the lower bollinger,... while considered an entry point, will quickly be sold into... to recoup losses on other fronts.

There is still time to take a position on Monday. WE pass.


----------------------------
Pre-market: Better buckle up

Friday, February 27, 2009

If U.S. stock index futures are any indication, major U.S. stock market indexes will carve out fresh 12-year lows on Friday morning when markets open, after investors recoiled from steep losses overseas, a mammoth-sized revision to the U.S. economic contraction in the fourth quarter and a government deal with Citigroup Inc. that seriously dilutes existing shareholders.

With about an hour before markets open, futures for the Dow Jones industrial average were down 139 points, to 7039. During Monday's stock market swoon, the Dow closed below 7115 for the first time in 12 years. Similarly, futures for the S[amp]amp;P 500 were down 17 points, to 735, after closing at a low of about 743 on Monday, before showing signs of rebounding later in the week.

U.S. gross domestic product was revised down to a contraction of 6.2 per cent, annualized, in the fourth quarter – far below an earlier reading of 3.8 per cent that had been well above projections from economists. Although economists had anticipated a downward revision to the quarter's GDP, this was worse than the expected 5 per cent drop.

“In the final analysis, it is clearly evident that the U.S. economy was significantly weaker in the fourth quarter than was first thought, which has a certain irony to it as the initial number was significantly less grim than the initial market expectation,” said Millan Mulraine, economics strategist at TD Securities, in a note. “And while we do not believe that this horrendous pace of economic contraction will continue at quite this rate, we expect the economy to remain very weak from some time, with further gaudy declines probable.”

Meanwhile, Citigroup Inc. struck a deal with the U.S. government which involves a stock swap that will see the administration take control of more than one third of the struggling bank. As part of the deal, more than $50-billion (U.S.) worth of preferred shares will be converted into common shares. According to the Wall Street Journal, the deal will wipe out about three quarters of the existing shareholders' stake in the bank.

The shares plunged 41.5 per cent in premarket trading, to just $1.44, and dragged down other names in the sector. Bank of America Corp. shares were down 21 per cent and Wells Fargo [amp]amp; Co. was down 12.6 per cent.

In Europe, the U.K.'s FTSE 100 was down 3.6 per cent and Germany's DAX index was down 3.9 per cent in afternoon trading. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 1.5 per cent in overnight trading.

© Copyright The Globe and Mail

GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader

StockCharts Public Chart List


Please read our Complete Disclosure

Thursday, February 26, 2009

PDN.TO

PDN.TO has shown surprising upward Level II movement in spite of heavy selling. On the open, we will be looking to take a position with tight mental stops. This particular rise looks to be ripe for a spike... There is room to move up. However, it goes against the odds with the weekend coming. So, that is against us.

The last defiant stand could turn into a good run... WE have a buy signal... Look to this chart PDN.TO - 60 min Renko, 780 posted in the StockCharts Public Chart List . You will see a double bottom on the renko bricks @ $2.20

We have posted up to date commentary. When we reference a trade off the lower bollinger, we look to the left and right hand of the devil.. RSI 14 and MACD 12,26,9 and compare the same renko chart to a PDN.TO - 60 min Candlesticks, 780.

We use the 60 minute candle chart to try and catch the turn. (You can't trade a daily renko; and upward or downward movement in a 60 minute renko doesn't illustrate the gaps... only the cumulative price move for any reason).

You can do the same comparison for tops, or you can switch to a quicker renko chart. We move to 10 minutes when making the same comparison, renko to renko. There is a 10 minute renko chart for observation.

We will be watching Level II for signs of reversal. Friday must be a higher finish to risk a gap down open over the weekend.

Overall, the stock looks neutral for bearish price movement and with the lower bollinger bounce and strong Level II price creep, we are anticipating a breakout.

Friday can go either way.

If the price stays strong over the weekend we will have made a good trade.

The large trend is still down... In a weekly candle chart this issue has posture and room to retest under $2.00

GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader

StockCharts Public Chart List


Please read our Complete Disclosure

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

SCP.TO

Heads up for a watch... SCP.TO lower bollinger target $2.10 over the next few days or week.


GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader

StockCharts Public Chart List


Please read our Complete Disclosure

PDN.TO

PDN.TO pulled a very weak looking ringed candle and try as I may, I have to acknowledge, ringed candles have to fail at some point. I keep seeing a rounded curve across the tops of the price OHLC bars (and or/CANDLES IN THE WEEKLY DEFAULT) in the public daily charts, and it is mirrored by the indicators. I get the impression that we will see some lower prices. Being a Wednesday (I felt we should have made a solid move, instead we churned just below yesterdays high, and today's open), it is usually the best day for solid moves because there is a couple of days to maneuver before the weekend. One thing that can be suggestive when evaluating ringed candles, is the price falling down and to the right of the lower bollinger is bearish; It was a very indecisive day.

I didn't trade... My thought is that the weekend is closing in and the sentiment is cautious and volume will stay low for the weekend and we will test $2.00 over the next few days. As we close in on the weekend we lose the window to trade with less risk.

I have made some notations on the PDN.TO charts... StockCharts Public Chart List


GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader

StockCharts Public Chart List


Please read our Complete Disclosure

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

PDN.TO

Today was a high finish. Tomorrows price action should show some kind of direction.

I suspect we will see some upside but we have broken support, and any highs should be taken to reduce risk, StockCharts Public Chart List takes you to a chart that shows the break of support at $2.23...

This is a very bearish chart short term and any trading will be fast and furious.

Wedensday is typically a good day for spikes.


GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader

StockCharts Public Chart List


Please read our Complete Disclosure

Monday, February 23, 2009

PDN.TO

Paladin has broken the upward dip picking trend and we are now watching a for signs that it will stabilize...

A low finish and no ringed candle, suggests lower pricing tomorrow... The price broke $2.23, which is the lower bollinger, and did not recover. There is nothing to do but watch. Using a weekly candle default chart, a lower bollinger touch suggests that $1.50 is the target over time. We should see a bounce at $2.00 and this may be a reversal or a chance to exit before lower prices.

GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader

StockCharts Public Chart List


Please read our Complete Disclosure