I like to watch a collection of index indicators that give a sense of direction for broad market swings and this site has a Market Watch along with fresh content...
Check it out... Munkee
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
Friday, January 22, 2010
PDN Trying to bounce
In the 60 min chart, a 24 day average shown in pink has dictated the the tops in the intraday... we have a nice bullish candle showing up in the chart now, but the top of the candle is testing the 24 day average... 3.80 cents... My own personal buy would have been under 3.70 cents, and I had many opportunities to purchase at that if I was feeling adventurous, but often the best time to buy is after the first 4 hours of the trading day... Considering the robust downside of the MACD and being it is Friday, holding for the weekend is not a risk I'm willing to take considering the broad market sell off for the last 10 trading days. Yup, I said ten days because that's what I have been seeing. I'm waiting for the other indicators to recognize the bounce.
On the open I can visualize a candle with a shadow on top, and a body, and a shadow below.
The open started out 3.68 shadowed down to 3.65 shadowed up to 3.80 so far and now is establishing a body.
We are looking for a ringed bottom in the daily candle. Two days ago the shadow bottom should be higher than yesterday's bottom (shadow), and today's shadow bottom should be higher than yesterday's shadow bottom.
Ringed bottoms indicate at best, short term reversals if they are on the lower bollinger, relative to a long decline.. ringed bottoms can occur before this, and/but a series of ringed bottoms only starts to take on character as it approaches the lower bollinger. The most significant consideration is that when a reversal takes off from a ringed bottom... that ringed bottom is a support reference for a future short or long term consolidation, Ringed bottoms have a tendency to be tested at some point in the relative near future.
Historically most PDN shadow hollow (bullish hollow candle closing up) candles closing a ringed bottom... on the lower bollinger, shadowed down to 50 percent of the body on the next trading day. This presents a buy target so far today for the adventurous of 3.71 cents if it presents itself during the action today, and establishes your downside risk for the open on Monday, and you should buy before the close of today.
Put your bid in for 3.71 cents and keep a tight mental stop. If the ringed bottom doesn't hold, look for more downside and have an exit strategy in mind.
With the broad market sell off and the downward trend... Professional traders are controlling the price... not bullish enthusiasm from stupendous fundamentals. It appears professional trading houses are en mass dumping because they can, and because the market is overbought for the short term.... It is unlikely PDN will put out news that will reverse the trend and global news has been anything but desirable... at best this is just a short bounce and will ultimately test support IMOP based on the overall chart conditions.
Personally, I'm waiting for the support to break... top side bounce is just under 4.20 and if this days close even looks like it will wipe out the hollow candle... I'd sell before the close.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
On the open I can visualize a candle with a shadow on top, and a body, and a shadow below.
The open started out 3.68 shadowed down to 3.65 shadowed up to 3.80 so far and now is establishing a body.
We are looking for a ringed bottom in the daily candle. Two days ago the shadow bottom should be higher than yesterday's bottom (shadow), and today's shadow bottom should be higher than yesterday's shadow bottom.
Ringed bottoms indicate at best, short term reversals if they are on the lower bollinger, relative to a long decline.. ringed bottoms can occur before this, and/but a series of ringed bottoms only starts to take on character as it approaches the lower bollinger. The most significant consideration is that when a reversal takes off from a ringed bottom... that ringed bottom is a support reference for a future short or long term consolidation, Ringed bottoms have a tendency to be tested at some point in the relative near future.
Historically most PDN shadow hollow (bullish hollow candle closing up) candles closing a ringed bottom... on the lower bollinger, shadowed down to 50 percent of the body on the next trading day. This presents a buy target so far today for the adventurous of 3.71 cents if it presents itself during the action today, and establishes your downside risk for the open on Monday, and you should buy before the close of today.
Put your bid in for 3.71 cents and keep a tight mental stop. If the ringed bottom doesn't hold, look for more downside and have an exit strategy in mind.
With the broad market sell off and the downward trend... Professional traders are controlling the price... not bullish enthusiasm from stupendous fundamentals. It appears professional trading houses are en mass dumping because they can, and because the market is overbought for the short term.... It is unlikely PDN will put out news that will reverse the trend and global news has been anything but desirable... at best this is just a short bounce and will ultimately test support IMOP based on the overall chart conditions.
Personally, I'm waiting for the support to break... top side bounce is just under 4.20 and if this days close even looks like it will wipe out the hollow candle... I'd sell before the close.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
Paladin.TO
Paladin has been working it's way down to support at 3.65.... Watching it on Level II, you can see the indicision. I have been tracking it on StockCharts using time frequencies of 10 minutes on the low side to 60 minutes on the high side.
A normal candle chart in the daily configuration says quite clearly more downside to come, but often a bounce takes place without turning the indicators on a daily chart.
This 60 minute chart looks bad for support and if it gives, the next level is just under 3.00... The indicator below is an indicator that is best read as the underlying trend and it shows some pretty serious downward pressure.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Watch out...
It would be prudent to prepare for the worst and if it turns out it doesn't take place, then at least you were prepared... I don't mean sell in panic, but keep it in the back of your mind not to hold weak looking positions.
Weak looking positions would come from two sources...
1) Extremely chart wise looking overbought issues (even strong fundamentals). You may want to take some off the table and chart wise favour toppy looking issues as tops instead of continuation patterns.
2) Poor Fundamentals and mo mo buys.
Shades of 2008 memories come calling with the broad market reaction I saw this Wednesday... Wednesday is the strongest day of the week with some of the best pops snaking new highs... Some of my best looking prospects sold hard on good news releases and generally my watch list moved down on volume... If this type of action doesn't change by next week you will see selling beget selling on good gains to cover swelling losses on bad losers. Not all will drop such as mid and big caps, but overbought small caps may dive like Hawaiian cliff divers...
In a broad market reversal, buy signals are not much more than bull traps as selling into strength overcomes most of the buy signals, breaking down a winning streak average into a losing streak average.
The Santa Rally and the January Effect have been (PRICED IN) allowed for in the continued show of strength into January... I feel a correction out of character for this period may be shaping up.
It appears that cash may be able to take advantage of some baby out with the bathwater type buys, so as it is a personal assessment of your own holdings,... dumping obvious weak holdings to preserve cash is not without some serious consideration.
While I don't necessarily agree with the complete assessment here, I definitely saw the bulls move to the sidelines and some heavy distribution of wealth take place. If it cascades, some cash on hand would be a great thing to possess.
Bulls-move-to-the-sidelines
We are in a usually strong time of the market timeline (Dec 24Th to April last week),and a correction for the moment, could dampen what would otherwise be a good time to rely on buy signals and turn into a bull trap... be cautious and don't chase!
In response to the potential broad market correction potential I have been putting together a chart for bottom picking baby out with the bathwater picks in the small cap arena... You will need to visit StockCharts Public Chart List and and I will label it to load in the number one position... Even if your not a real-time extra member, you should be able to see the entire presentation
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
Weak looking positions would come from two sources...
1) Extremely chart wise looking overbought issues (even strong fundamentals). You may want to take some off the table and chart wise favour toppy looking issues as tops instead of continuation patterns.
2) Poor Fundamentals and mo mo buys.
Shades of 2008 memories come calling with the broad market reaction I saw this Wednesday... Wednesday is the strongest day of the week with some of the best pops snaking new highs... Some of my best looking prospects sold hard on good news releases and generally my watch list moved down on volume... If this type of action doesn't change by next week you will see selling beget selling on good gains to cover swelling losses on bad losers. Not all will drop such as mid and big caps, but overbought small caps may dive like Hawaiian cliff divers...
In a broad market reversal, buy signals are not much more than bull traps as selling into strength overcomes most of the buy signals, breaking down a winning streak average into a losing streak average.
The Santa Rally and the January Effect have been (PRICED IN) allowed for in the continued show of strength into January... I feel a correction out of character for this period may be shaping up.
It appears that cash may be able to take advantage of some baby out with the bathwater type buys, so as it is a personal assessment of your own holdings,... dumping obvious weak holdings to preserve cash is not without some serious consideration.
While I don't necessarily agree with the complete assessment here, I definitely saw the bulls move to the sidelines and some heavy distribution of wealth take place. If it cascades, some cash on hand would be a great thing to possess.
Bulls-move-to-the-sidelines
We are in a usually strong time of the market timeline (Dec 24Th to April last week),and a correction for the moment, could dampen what would otherwise be a good time to rely on buy signals and turn into a bull trap... be cautious and don't chase!
In response to the potential broad market correction potential I have been putting together a chart for bottom picking baby out with the bathwater picks in the small cap arena... You will need to visit StockCharts Public Chart List and and I will label it to load in the number one position... Even if your not a real-time extra member, you should be able to see the entire presentation
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
The Santa and Jan Effect
The Santa and Jan Effect appear to be already accounted for in the present strong showing of the TSE & CDNX as there has been a churning type of action in my charts... as it would incicate a lot of volume and little actual price movement, one should only risk capital on extremely strong charts that are backed by extremely strong fundamental considerations.
I have posted some extremely strong looking charts to the favorites public list... It is my opinion that strong fundamentals along with strong charts will provide the oomph to the rest of the best time to hold part of the year. Go away in May is the mantra.
The bids and ask on Level II appear to be just ebb and flow in ever widening patterns... they are demonstrating continuation patterns with acceptable variations of volitility (up on high volume and down on low volume)providing solid backfill for continued advance to new highs.
Buy the dip seems appropriate, so I am.
AHR.V
Gold Play in BC.... .66 to .69 would be nice if offered. I have been watching for days and if this one breaks through this rising triangle formation... we should see another .10 cents on the small side to a move over 1.00 on a good run and it should hold the move.
CUM.TO
Copper/Gold/Silver in B.C... 2.25 to 2.37 would be nice if offered. This one has a larger upside and could run to over .300 based on the look of the TA alone never mind the fundamentals.
Just MOP.
StockCharts Public Chart List
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
I have posted some extremely strong looking charts to the favorites public list... It is my opinion that strong fundamentals along with strong charts will provide the oomph to the rest of the best time to hold part of the year. Go away in May is the mantra.
The bids and ask on Level II appear to be just ebb and flow in ever widening patterns... they are demonstrating continuation patterns with acceptable variations of volitility (up on high volume and down on low volume)providing solid backfill for continued advance to new highs.
Buy the dip seems appropriate, so I am.
AHR.V
Gold Play in BC.... .66 to .69 would be nice if offered. I have been watching for days and if this one breaks through this rising triangle formation... we should see another .10 cents on the small side to a move over 1.00 on a good run and it should hold the move.
CUM.TO
Copper/Gold/Silver in B.C... 2.25 to 2.37 would be nice if offered. This one has a larger upside and could run to over .300 based on the look of the TA alone never mind the fundamentals.
Just MOP.
StockCharts Public Chart List
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
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