Here's a link to the study showing more detail to evaluate trend and swing considerations... it is not used for taking a position other than the initial buy pattern demonstrated in July as a low risk entry point.. the exit would be an obvious break in the trend... the indicators are starting to show chinks, but overall it looks strong, but overbought. CDNX Trend A side benefit included in this study for the more complete picture would be the lower indicators demonstrating picking dips that are reliable as long as the trend is up...
You could use this setup for individual stocks.
In reality most of the easy money is already made with a lot of the individual speculative small caps rallying for the better part of 90 to 120 days or more... nothing goes up forever... and as I do a lot of research from a speculative sentiment point of view... comparing prices to other issues of the same quality... I can tell you there is a lot of confusion out there (implying pending volatility approaching "Go Away in May") such that many issues with nothing but hopes are priced the same as issues that have a modem of strong speculative considerations... and vice versa... It is a perfect setting for panic considering the relative bullish high or a melt up.... be prepared... Don't listen to the taking heads... they are protecting their biased interest jobs.
My point.... disconnect and focus on discipline with a strong emphasis on technical trend breaking as a precautionary note taking a neutral position if you feel threatened... protect the pile... if you buy... buy only at points of oversold after confirmation to reduce risk magnifying gain... keeping tight mental (or real) stops... and don't change your plan for an exit strategy if your targets are hit... second guessing is a most dangerous game. You don't learn from the experience... as much as it can produce extraordinary losses if your in a position of profit (through luck or skill)... getting out with a profit never lost anybody any money.
If you consider the two comparatives... trend rising while momentum is ranging.... is a situation where confirmation is out of balance.... one of the divergence indications will move to confirm the other... one way or the other....
If you were watching level II in any one particular issue... trying to jockey for a position (now at this moment)... while it is true the trend is up for a hold position till the trend breaks... In this case relative overbought is a mitigating factor.... the law of averages says that the chance of running into a curve is on the same plain as Murphy's Law.... If anything can go wrong it most certainly will.... Assuming a position on a moving train 3/4s to the apparent destination is an endeavor that has.... simply put..... less return potential for profit at a much higher risk as a timing factor strategy... especially when buying unproven speculative issues with no cash flow... As an example of a personal alert for me.... if my trading average starts to drop... I don't consider it that I've lost my touch... My average is my touch.... it is a personal alert that my strategy is failing due to a changing environment that is not easily seen as much as it is felt...... and as an averaging strategy.. my technique is lacking in favourable odds...
That's a conservative description of the conditions out there... Trading on sentiment (chasing) is producing a lot more razor cuts for this chartist than it should and is my own personal alert.... to be more selective... disconnect from the sentiment motivators that drive love for a stock... focus on technical trend analysis and practice increasing caution... or stick to a long approach and turn off the computer.
This is a hold market and not the time to be jumping on the wake of every gust of wind that flys.
This leads me to an observation that if the stocks I'm watching are churning with little gains... what ARE the stocks... that are doing the broad market lifting... and how can I find them....?
I'm investigating some computerized trading systems.... that if I have any success with... I will be recommending....
GLTA Lostoutwest
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