With the preceeding post in mind... check out the NR's on TME.V .
I took a small position at .395... Level II looks clear to the upside... the teardrop in action... is usually a good sign, not withstanding any outright manipulation... which is not apparent as of this post.
Not overloaded in shares... buying from the sides on back fill.
StockCharts Public Chart List
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
Thursday, November 4, 2010
Financings
One of the most motovating factors in price share movement is financing.
Financing in a down market, moves the share price to the financing..
Financing is a given when you're taking positions in a small cap, as it is likely the only way they can move forward.
It usually takes a period of time to see the effects, that is unless the market is really hot, then financing can pop the price radically.
Financing in a ranging market usually is ho hum.
Financing in a rising market is usually a good sign... and often if the financing is at a premium to a stock price, then the delayed reaction is a creeping move to the higher price.
One of the things on my mind as a gorilla trader is the financing, such that it is the first thing I research on solid speculations. Post financing is the time to chart speculations.
Financing tells us two things... 1) they have new money (like in the bank) and;
2) there is now an overhead of paper likely in the form of warrants, which are good in that it generates new cash, and bad, that it can test our resolve.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
Financing in a down market, moves the share price to the financing..
Financing is a given when you're taking positions in a small cap, as it is likely the only way they can move forward.
It usually takes a period of time to see the effects, that is unless the market is really hot, then financing can pop the price radically.
Financing in a ranging market usually is ho hum.
Financing in a rising market is usually a good sign... and often if the financing is at a premium to a stock price, then the delayed reaction is a creeping move to the higher price.
One of the things on my mind as a gorilla trader is the financing, such that it is the first thing I research on solid speculations. Post financing is the time to chart speculations.
Financing tells us two things... 1) they have new money (like in the bank) and;
2) there is now an overhead of paper likely in the form of warrants, which are good in that it generates new cash, and bad, that it can test our resolve.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
Did you check the
Public Chart List TSX and venture studies.... it leaves little to doubt about the heavy distribution on Wednesdays... quite a nice surge this morning.... A sigh of relief. The TSX and Venture continue to push through heavy distribution. I'm wrestling in my mind as to how the tax selling season is going to play out, what with the Santa Rally and January effect closing in us... HMMMM... somewhere in this is the triple witching.... Third Friday of every third month
What Does Triple Witching Mean?
An event that occurs when the contracts for stock index futures, stock index options and stock options all expire on the same day. Triple witching days happen four times a year on the third Friday of March, June, September and December.
This phenomenon is sometimes referred to as "freaky Friday".
Investopedia explains Triple Witching:
The final trading hour for that Friday is the hour known as triple witching. The markets are quite volatile in this final hour, as traders quickly offset their option/futures orders before the closing bell. If you are a long-term investor, triple witching will have a minimal impact on you.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
What Does Triple Witching Mean?
An event that occurs when the contracts for stock index futures, stock index options and stock options all expire on the same day. Triple witching days happen four times a year on the third Friday of March, June, September and December.
This phenomenon is sometimes referred to as "freaky Friday".
Investopedia explains Triple Witching:
The final trading hour for that Friday is the hour known as triple witching. The markets are quite volatile in this final hour, as traders quickly offset their option/futures orders before the closing bell. If you are a long-term investor, triple witching will have a minimal impact on you.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
GOZ.TO
The recent NR releases are definitely solid such that so, after reading through some of the achievements, you're going to be asking yourself, "What am I missing"? But Remember... as the main website attempts overture the concept... We are gorilla trading based on Market Motivators driven by sentiment.
The price does not reflect an accurate comparison to any peers (undervalued)... the chart is extremely bullish having creeped through the Go Away in May Cycle, uncharacteristically devoid of volatility. I suspect this issue will slowly move through what appears to be a solid section of what I would consider a traders block of amatures topping the issue. I find I stand alone when it comes to spotting continuations, and I don't mean to be presumptuous, I put a small 2k bid in this morning at .80 cents just under the heavy ask, and was filled reasonably quick... it may be possible to get some as low as .76 cents over the next few days. I think this as I have been watching the opens teardrop effect, I think I have stumbled on to an issue that is not being chased with abandon. If you analyze level II, somewhere above .90 cents the sky really thins out and, if the topping traders get washed out as this range is slowly accumulated with strong hands... this could spike.
By the end of today I will be posting an update to the StockCharts Public Chart List
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
The price does not reflect an accurate comparison to any peers (undervalued)... the chart is extremely bullish having creeped through the Go Away in May Cycle, uncharacteristically devoid of volatility. I suspect this issue will slowly move through what appears to be a solid section of what I would consider a traders block of amatures topping the issue. I find I stand alone when it comes to spotting continuations, and I don't mean to be presumptuous, I put a small 2k bid in this morning at .80 cents just under the heavy ask, and was filled reasonably quick... it may be possible to get some as low as .76 cents over the next few days. I think this as I have been watching the opens teardrop effect, I think I have stumbled on to an issue that is not being chased with abandon. If you analyze level II, somewhere above .90 cents the sky really thins out and, if the topping traders get washed out as this range is slowly accumulated with strong hands... this could spike.
By the end of today I will be posting an update to the StockCharts Public Chart List
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
SQI.V Update
Creeping is the word that best describes the price action on level II, along with the teardrop effect... the solid building of support... the opens remaining strong in the .64 .65 cent area... and today's open suggest that the supply and demand are about equal at a charting point that is technically a point of entry that allows the control of risk to a maximum, provided an exit strategy is adopted... a very strong open on .66 pushing to .67... all buying... nice open coming from the bottom. If possible the optimum buy would be in the .63 tom .65 area for maximum ability to control risk and let the chart go for a bounce as is highly suggested.
If this were to demonstrate hitting the bids from the ask side, and were to drop below .61 cents, then I would control risk....
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
If this were to demonstrate hitting the bids from the ask side, and were to drop below .61 cents, then I would control risk....
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Not a good Wednesday!
It is too soon to react... but I have put any bullish buying on hold... preferring to bid than participate in any price chasing, sticking to very strong fundamentals for a dip. DML.TO has shown some nice gains this morning, and I would look to swinging if it doesn't hold over the next few days. Uranium is a bit whippy on most of my favorites... and I feel the TKO.TO has been a shock to many holders who may be dabbling in other issues, causing them to move to cash to offset the losses, which are sizable. A smack in the common sense department.
The selling pressure could also be more likely something in the wind with institutional buyers we have yet to see, involving the elections in the states. Gold and silver may take some knee jerk... and a quick look at my watch list shows a broad back fill in motion. A sea of red if you will.
A quick look at the Venture and Toronto StockCharts Public Chart List is displaying some more than average selling pressure (distribution).
Issues that have not spiked on exuberance (lack of overhang) should hold bullish positions.
Something I have noticed, not written in stone, is Wednesday has been for quite a few weeks a heavy distribution day, in spite of which the markets have bucked, and gained a bit. looking at the charts, the day after any two or three distribution days has recovered almost immediately the following day, picked up from the down close... anything less would be foreboding. I do not imply a market crash... but a correction is suggested in some of the shorter term indicators.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
The selling pressure could also be more likely something in the wind with institutional buyers we have yet to see, involving the elections in the states. Gold and silver may take some knee jerk... and a quick look at my watch list shows a broad back fill in motion. A sea of red if you will.
A quick look at the Venture and Toronto StockCharts Public Chart List is displaying some more than average selling pressure (distribution).
Issues that have not spiked on exuberance (lack of overhang) should hold bullish positions.
Something I have noticed, not written in stone, is Wednesday has been for quite a few weeks a heavy distribution day, in spite of which the markets have bucked, and gained a bit. looking at the charts, the day after any two or three distribution days has recovered almost immediately the following day, picked up from the down close... anything less would be foreboding. I do not imply a market crash... but a correction is suggested in some of the shorter term indicators.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
DML.TO
Smoking... 2.49 this morning.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
TKO.TO
I just took a glance at TKO... down 2 bucks on the open.. the Prosperity project got nixxed under pressure from the First Nations lobby... Ouch!......... Figured something was up when someone from the states bailed 2.6 millions shares in one dump a bit back. Insider trading obviously... should be some jail time IMOP... Martha better not be behind it.. That's one big project... timing will be tough, however the price for entry could be a whole lot less at a better time...
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Throughout my watch list
I see creeping gains, a few surges that are decent, with distribution capping spikes of consequence, still they chew through paper. two or three days are common place with as much or more sideways consolidation.
Today is Tuesday so the rising markets should push hard past Wednesday with heavy distribution... What I'm driving at is that overall... things are positive with surges to the up side for a few days with back fills to the downside on higher lows, however everything is creeping under pressure not flying with abandon.. we are working for gains.
You need to look at the big picture to taste the sentiment of the market... this cautious, but bullish setting will try the patience of newer players who have been on the wrong side for what seems forever, or are expecting results without waiting for the cycles to play out.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
Today is Tuesday so the rising markets should push hard past Wednesday with heavy distribution... What I'm driving at is that overall... things are positive with surges to the up side for a few days with back fills to the downside on higher lows, however everything is creeping under pressure not flying with abandon.. we are working for gains.
You need to look at the big picture to taste the sentiment of the market... this cautious, but bullish setting will try the patience of newer players who have been on the wrong side for what seems forever, or are expecting results without waiting for the cycles to play out.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
The Market
The venture is approaching nosebleed heights, but the truth is it is also showing no indication of letting up... that in itself makes me nervous...
The toronto isn't as robust, but still is bullish. I'm seeing indications of consolidation in the venture, but the Toronto still looks solid.
It would be a real pop and crash if this lasts in to April next year.
Hold your breath.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
The toronto isn't as robust, but still is bullish. I'm seeing indications of consolidation in the venture, but the Toronto still looks solid.
It would be a real pop and crash if this lasts in to April next year.
Hold your breath.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
The other eye SQI.V
is on SQI.V... The chart is showing some nice narrowing, which in another word would be squeezing.
Candles are smaller, movement is to the right... volume is light... price placement is near the 200 day average where the symmetrical triangle if viewed as a continuation pattern, at this point, is definitely part of an up trend... would suggest we be ready for a breakout. Then considering the gold and silver pricing... Level II has no movement from the sides in either direction more so than the other... the perfect buy with the lowest risk at this point is .60 to .63 cents which may show itself this week at least one more time...
I will be making an update to the public List StockCharts Public Chart List
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
Candles are smaller, movement is to the right... volume is light... price placement is near the 200 day average where the symmetrical triangle if viewed as a continuation pattern, at this point, is definitely part of an up trend... would suggest we be ready for a breakout. Then considering the gold and silver pricing... Level II has no movement from the sides in either direction more so than the other... the perfect buy with the lowest risk at this point is .60 to .63 cents which may show itself this week at least one more time...
I will be making an update to the public List StockCharts Public Chart List
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
One Eye on EVG.V
on EVG... I'm liking the price action this morning on level II... the volume dropped off and along with it, my fear of a wave making spike waned.... I would much prefer the price to make a sideways or restricted rise in this area so that we can wash out the 200 day average weak hands that have been following the price down through the consolidation, selling the tops... we need to replace them with strong hands buying the back fills. If that happens a true trend reversal could grow, and finally twist the top off.
The chart pattern is looking strong, and the natural wave motion of the back fills could crest down as low as .82 cents... before the pattern really confirms... On the other hand, if we can break $1.00 ... the support should move up into the low .90s. I will be updating the Stock Charts Public list with suitable observations for the reversal progress I think I see. StockCharts Public Chart List
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
The chart pattern is looking strong, and the natural wave motion of the back fills could crest down as low as .82 cents... before the pattern really confirms... On the other hand, if we can break $1.00 ... the support should move up into the low .90s. I will be updating the Stock Charts Public list with suitable observations for the reversal progress I think I see. StockCharts Public Chart List
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
Monday, November 1, 2010
Levell II
Level II can be used against you... don't count out the possibility... but it can also work for you... and it's not as complicated to interpret as you might think, if focusing the effort on the right aspects.
Level II shows the bid and ask and depth on each side, as in up or down at the different levels of bidding or asks.
So you have levell II... Look for selling or buying... hard hitting from the side lines in either direction is easy to see if your watching... look at the bids for support or resistance... make a speculation... but pay more attention to the exuberance coming in from the side to be the action of choice to act on. Support and resistance blocks (even with seemingly impenetrable depth) can have a reverse effect buy drawing out the bigger action, acting as bait rather than giving confidence in support or resistance as first thought.
If the hitting from the side is hard enough, and in large enough chunks to waste a block in either direction... it will soon become apparent that the movement to watch comes from the side lines... not the strong hands that bid or sell on the platform. Pretty good clue as to the trend in either direction when matched up with technical charting. The reason for this last few posts is that in order to catch the action if it develops as per EVG.V... you need to watch and be looking at the right thing to catch the dance for use in other issues.
Sentiment buying in action.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
Level II shows the bid and ask and depth on each side, as in up or down at the different levels of bidding or asks.
So you have levell II... Look for selling or buying... hard hitting from the side lines in either direction is easy to see if your watching... look at the bids for support or resistance... make a speculation... but pay more attention to the exuberance coming in from the side to be the action of choice to act on. Support and resistance blocks (even with seemingly impenetrable depth) can have a reverse effect buy drawing out the bigger action, acting as bait rather than giving confidence in support or resistance as first thought.
If the hitting from the side is hard enough, and in large enough chunks to waste a block in either direction... it will soon become apparent that the movement to watch comes from the side lines... not the strong hands that bid or sell on the platform. Pretty good clue as to the trend in either direction when matched up with technical charting. The reason for this last few posts is that in order to catch the action if it develops as per EVG.V... you need to watch and be looking at the right thing to catch the dance for use in other issues.
Sentiment buying in action.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
SH Public Watch-List
Recently I took a deep breath and punched up a watch list, that at first I was apprehensive in doing as it would show something I may have wanted to be private... as luck would have it, the market was running and a monkey could throw darts and make good picks... it helped a bit, that I did have some experience.
Unbeknown st at the time of punching it up though, was that it would turn into a visionary tool that I had long been losing out on out of fear, seems the portfolio watch list (and I suspect other site watch lists have the same quality) shows the overall % rise of the individual stocks, with a reversal column that measures the back fill... Duh! In an simplistic way this particular watch list is pretty basic compared to others, but that simplicity is definitely a pound of cure.
We often talk about back fill, which is an easy word to define as low volume selling in an up trend, usually intraday, sometimes expanding to pennants or flags, that occurs as a normal transfer of shares in the quieter times, where exuberance is under a leash; healthy and necessary.
I had never found an effective tool or method of measuring back fill against the performance of the up trend. 10 YEARS AT THIS AND THAT IS PATHETIC. One of the easiest methods to measure your style, choice of issues and finally a big picture look at the state of the market in the sector of your choice.
Not that I haven't held my own, just that I never had run across it being passed on as a noteworthy side benefit in all my travels.
I recommend putting up a chart list in SH... it will be an eye opener!
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
Unbeknown st at the time of punching it up though, was that it would turn into a visionary tool that I had long been losing out on out of fear, seems the portfolio watch list (and I suspect other site watch lists have the same quality) shows the overall % rise of the individual stocks, with a reversal column that measures the back fill... Duh! In an simplistic way this particular watch list is pretty basic compared to others, but that simplicity is definitely a pound of cure.
We often talk about back fill, which is an easy word to define as low volume selling in an up trend, usually intraday, sometimes expanding to pennants or flags, that occurs as a normal transfer of shares in the quieter times, where exuberance is under a leash; healthy and necessary.
I had never found an effective tool or method of measuring back fill against the performance of the up trend. 10 YEARS AT THIS AND THAT IS PATHETIC. One of the easiest methods to measure your style, choice of issues and finally a big picture look at the state of the market in the sector of your choice.
Not that I haven't held my own, just that I never had run across it being passed on as a noteworthy side benefit in all my travels.
I recommend putting up a chart list in SH... it will be an eye opener!
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
Breaking the 200 day moving average #2
The 200 day average, is an average that has historical habit built into it from way back... most chartists revere it, mostly I think because human nature seems to have a certain limit of patience, or exuberance invested in this line drawn in the sand.. Financing, growth, and getting it right seem to work to completion within this time line... If there is enough momentum to break it, then in most cases one could assume that as a reasonable measure of supply and demand, depending on the direction from which the price is coming, that it has proven to be accurate in assessing for a large, long tested time, a pretty accurate guess at touching the elusive estimate - is there more demand than supply... or the other way around... comes within acceptable speculation limits.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
Sunday, October 31, 2010
Breaking the 200 day moving average
could be a bit spikey, and a resulting consolidation to the lower bollinger, and bouncing off the 200 day SMA would be textbook sentiment buying.... watch for it as a chasing point of entry if the 200 gets broken in exuberation. The EVG bottoming pattern is very similar to DML's pattern on the breakout.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
Ya Know
I was looking over a few studies on EVG.V, and I saw something I had missed.... (well not really, just didn't mention) I don't think it's relevant as in bad fundamentals, at least not in a negative way, just a very interesting observation... it seems as with a lot of stocks I watch, there was a pretty consistent "Go Away in May" crash, more so this year than many I have experienced in past years. This could be a result of re-positioning the picks in my watch list magically having a consistent theme... or it could have been as a result of the weird rally we have experienced defying most of the traditional seasonal, and market cycles this last 12 months.
My slant is... (and most always is from TA).... two things occurred:
1 - EVG did try and rally from the beginning of April to the end of May, but ran into the 200 day average from below... an occurrence where running into a time tested expected market reaction, concerning a well respected broad market tradition, that in some cases, usually results in at least one attempt of failure is the would be, only likely result.
Considering -
2 - that failure coincides smack dab at the beginning of May... what with the timing... it is pretty consistent with the "Go Away in May" cycle, which, (noteable) in past years to my recollection has not been as severe.
While myself, and other holders of EVG.V were considering all kinds of conspiracy theories... EVG may just have been doing the natural.
It does add a bit of positive swing to the pendulum. As much as I appreciate Grandich's fundamental expertise in the art of solid speculative analysis, I have noticed a distinct frustration in the act of opposites, such that it is always a conundrum to watch the fundamentals, and technicals, swing in different trees.
Irregardless... without a doubt, the pattern emerging is a symmetrical triangle.... there is a time tested breakout in the works... the outcome I believe is bullish, but the true direction of which, will be hind site.
This is an entry point that appears to have respectably low risk considering the fundamentals, provided an acceptable exit strategy is considered, if things go the unlikely path of south.
The reason I'm bullish, is daily observation of the real time selling, and buying patterns in the bid/ask positions of level II. I am witnessing what I call the teardrop effect... the summary of which demonstrates a distinct lack of selling (not hitting the bids resulting in higher lows) accompanied with sporadic buying from the sides relentlessly accumulating the asks. Albiet, one bad NR, and this bottoming pattern could surprise, but I have to speculate on what I see, not what I think.
It seems that when the teardrop effect appears without some type of blocking manipulation... the action is quick from there... My expectation is that any back fills will be aggressively accumulated.
Here's a link to Stockcharts that accurately describes Symmetrical Triangle - note the pattern is a continuation pattern, and in my case, I see the recent down trend (consolidation) as part of a bigger up trend, so that assumption adds fuel to the bullish camp. Others may see it differently, however, I feel they are mistaken. Had this cycle been a few months later, we would likely be seeing much higher prices as the consolidation works itself out. The particularly out of cycle consolidation has been streatched out much more than anticipated in spite of the strong pipeline of gold findings.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
My slant is... (and most always is from TA).... two things occurred:
1 - EVG did try and rally from the beginning of April to the end of May, but ran into the 200 day average from below... an occurrence where running into a time tested expected market reaction, concerning a well respected broad market tradition, that in some cases, usually results in at least one attempt of failure is the would be, only likely result.
Considering -
2 - that failure coincides smack dab at the beginning of May... what with the timing... it is pretty consistent with the "Go Away in May" cycle, which, (noteable) in past years to my recollection has not been as severe.
While myself, and other holders of EVG.V were considering all kinds of conspiracy theories... EVG may just have been doing the natural.
It does add a bit of positive swing to the pendulum. As much as I appreciate Grandich's fundamental expertise in the art of solid speculative analysis, I have noticed a distinct frustration in the act of opposites, such that it is always a conundrum to watch the fundamentals, and technicals, swing in different trees.
Irregardless... without a doubt, the pattern emerging is a symmetrical triangle.... there is a time tested breakout in the works... the outcome I believe is bullish, but the true direction of which, will be hind site.
This is an entry point that appears to have respectably low risk considering the fundamentals, provided an acceptable exit strategy is considered, if things go the unlikely path of south.
The reason I'm bullish, is daily observation of the real time selling, and buying patterns in the bid/ask positions of level II. I am witnessing what I call the teardrop effect... the summary of which demonstrates a distinct lack of selling (not hitting the bids resulting in higher lows) accompanied with sporadic buying from the sides relentlessly accumulating the asks. Albiet, one bad NR, and this bottoming pattern could surprise, but I have to speculate on what I see, not what I think.
It seems that when the teardrop effect appears without some type of blocking manipulation... the action is quick from there... My expectation is that any back fills will be aggressively accumulated.
Here's a link to Stockcharts that accurately describes Symmetrical Triangle - note the pattern is a continuation pattern, and in my case, I see the recent down trend (consolidation) as part of a bigger up trend, so that assumption adds fuel to the bullish camp. Others may see it differently, however, I feel they are mistaken. Had this cycle been a few months later, we would likely be seeing much higher prices as the consolidation works itself out. The particularly out of cycle consolidation has been streatched out much more than anticipated in spite of the strong pipeline of gold findings.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)