One of the clues that you can look for, and it is hindsight, otherwise I'd be a lot richer, is a ringed candle.
A ringed candle by itself can be can misleading, but, a ringed candle appearing on, or near a lower bollinger touch, is a ringed candle to watch for. You can see it best with candles, which, is what we are using in the Chart List.
So in your own chart, switch to the candle view, and take a closer look at the candles on the bounces off the lower bollinger.
A ringed candle in a three(3)candle group is the middle candle.
The candles on either side of the ringed candle have a higher low than the middle candle.
The middle candle has the lowest low.
Place this candle on the lower bollinger, and it is a hot buy signal in a bully market, or an up trending price.
Ringed candles also mark areas of support for testing on down swings later in the uptrend.
If the trend is down, or a price is skidding down a lower bollinger, then beware, a ringed candle is likely meaningless until you reach a price level that a previous ringed candle on a lower bollinger touch has marked as a support level.
For evaluating a fresh ringed candle touching a lower bollinger, the price must be at least ranging, or trending up to trust ringed candles on price down moves making a lower bollinger touch within the ranging or rising trend!
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
StockCharts Public Chart List
Please read our Complete Disclosure
Friday, February 20, 2009
PDN.TO
Just like a Friday to keep things down... not many have the courage to go the weekend.
This has been a real good test of the lower bollinger touch... but one has to keep in mind that every once in a while the trend is broken and in this study,
StockCharts Public Chart List
A lower bollinger skid breakdown, is a trend breakdown, by another name.
Reading candles or closes has a few thoughts, and one thought is that, a low finish price leads to a lower price or gap down the next day. That's the consensus, however we are testing a strong area of support as was proven by the bottom churn @ $2.30, It's also Friday and a couple of days to calm the dumpers, so on Monday if it goes by the book, and the lower bollinger holds, we may open down from the close put a tail on the opening daily candle & spike through the lower bollinger, the downside target is $2.23 (lower bollinger reading) or the tail could hold higher, and finish up with a (hollow) white candle near or above the Monday open by the end of the day, would be a good sign the lower bollinger is holding. If we do I will have bought somewhere in between.
We could also open on todays close and that would be good!
We could also open a bit higher and that would be good too!
If the price gaps down and finishes low at the end of the day on a red candle, I will likely have seen it coming and still be watching for a...
Ringed Candle
...on Monday or Tuesday
I didn't see anything that gives me an edge as to what Monday holds. The only thing that I have to hang on to is the lower bollinger touch, and two days to cool off, so it will be hindsight Monday.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
StockCharts Public Chart List
Please read our Complete Disclosure
This has been a real good test of the lower bollinger touch... but one has to keep in mind that every once in a while the trend is broken and in this study,
StockCharts Public Chart List
A lower bollinger skid breakdown, is a trend breakdown, by another name.
Reading candles or closes has a few thoughts, and one thought is that, a low finish price leads to a lower price or gap down the next day. That's the consensus, however we are testing a strong area of support as was proven by the bottom churn @ $2.30, It's also Friday and a couple of days to calm the dumpers, so on Monday if it goes by the book, and the lower bollinger holds, we may open down from the close put a tail on the opening daily candle & spike through the lower bollinger, the downside target is $2.23 (lower bollinger reading) or the tail could hold higher, and finish up with a (hollow) white candle near or above the Monday open by the end of the day, would be a good sign the lower bollinger is holding. If we do I will have bought somewhere in between.
We could also open on todays close and that would be good!
We could also open a bit higher and that would be good too!
If the price gaps down and finishes low at the end of the day on a red candle, I will likely have seen it coming and still be watching for a...
Ringed Candle
...on Monday or Tuesday
I didn't see anything that gives me an edge as to what Monday holds. The only thing that I have to hang on to is the lower bollinger touch, and two days to cool off, so it will be hindsight Monday.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
StockCharts Public Chart List
Please read our Complete Disclosure
Thursday, February 19, 2009
PDN.TO
The day before, Paladin was testing a lower bollinger touch as per the chart in the Public list.
The buy signal (%b) hadn't appeared yet.
StockCharts Public Chart List
At the close, yesterday Paladin was at 2.40 and this morning there was a gap up to 2.50 on the open and a subsequent run to 2.65.
Paladin can be choppy, What should of happened was a small gap down, or move closer to the lower bollinger, possibly a tail or lower candle shadow penetration of the lower bollinger.
A look at the chart says the buy signal is on. One day it's not, another day it is... How do you buy?
We are ready to buy (we are watching) but we don't chase and we don't buy the gap. As gorillas, this is a bad banana thing to do. If anything, we would have anticipated the gap and bought yesterday, and we would sell the gap on the open about an hour into the day (depends). Assuming we had bought yesterday and were holding... We certainly at the worst, would sell above breakeven if we were thinking it may go higher tomorrow and it goes bad on us today and won't hold a high finish.
If the price moves to go below todays open... that is something we won't let happen. It's called risk control. we will take a chance and hope to to renter when we can see more stable price action, preferably lower.
A gap up on a running upward price movement is something that you might chase, and we may run into that later as in the big bounce, or we may still breakout of $2.90, but this gap is different because of it's relativity..
This morning was a gap up off a lower bollinger bounce, which is a gap up off a running down price movement.
As a gorilla, I expect the price to run up on the gap (which it did to 2.65), but I also expect the price to come back and test the lower bollinger in a more sane manner, now that the newbies have been washed out. This price gap up almost touched the upper bollinger (Bearish)
I'm looking for a purchase possibly as low as 2.45, or under, in the next few days.
I'm pointing this out because, when you look a renko chart, the blocks of price movement are ranges, not solid start and finish measurements of movement.
This means that a block of Renko price movement appearing as it has in the 60 minute frequency is NOT necessarily a runaway to the upside. It is good practice to compare the daily to the 60 minute frequency. A block of renko price movement in a daily can be a very large move.
The gap did two things for us:
- Allowed some of the upper resistance to bail out, setting up less resistance for a good run, and presenting us with a buy opportunity off the lower bollinger. This means that you can plan your entry expecting back fills to provide you with a lower price to buy.
- Shook up the newbies who may think twice about being so gullible when they see the ugly candles in the chart.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
StockCharts Public Chart List
Please read our Complete Disclosure
The buy signal (%b) hadn't appeared yet.
StockCharts Public Chart List
At the close, yesterday Paladin was at 2.40 and this morning there was a gap up to 2.50 on the open and a subsequent run to 2.65.
Paladin can be choppy, What should of happened was a small gap down, or move closer to the lower bollinger, possibly a tail or lower candle shadow penetration of the lower bollinger.
A look at the chart says the buy signal is on. One day it's not, another day it is... How do you buy?
We are ready to buy (we are watching) but we don't chase and we don't buy the gap. As gorillas, this is a bad banana thing to do. If anything, we would have anticipated the gap and bought yesterday, and we would sell the gap on the open about an hour into the day (depends). Assuming we had bought yesterday and were holding... We certainly at the worst, would sell above breakeven if we were thinking it may go higher tomorrow and it goes bad on us today and won't hold a high finish.
If the price moves to go below todays open... that is something we won't let happen. It's called risk control. we will take a chance and hope to to renter when we can see more stable price action, preferably lower.
A gap up on a running upward price movement is something that you might chase, and we may run into that later as in the big bounce, or we may still breakout of $2.90, but this gap is different because of it's relativity..
This morning was a gap up off a lower bollinger bounce, which is a gap up off a running down price movement.
As a gorilla, I expect the price to run up on the gap (which it did to 2.65), but I also expect the price to come back and test the lower bollinger in a more sane manner, now that the newbies have been washed out. This price gap up almost touched the upper bollinger (Bearish)
I'm looking for a purchase possibly as low as 2.45, or under, in the next few days.
I'm pointing this out because, when you look a renko chart, the blocks of price movement are ranges, not solid start and finish measurements of movement.
This means that a block of Renko price movement appearing as it has in the 60 minute frequency is NOT necessarily a runaway to the upside. It is good practice to compare the daily to the 60 minute frequency. A block of renko price movement in a daily can be a very large move.
The gap did two things for us:
- Allowed some of the upper resistance to bail out, setting up less resistance for a good run, and presenting us with a buy opportunity off the lower bollinger. This means that you can plan your entry expecting back fills to provide you with a lower price to buy.
- Shook up the newbies who may think twice about being so gullible when they see the ugly candles in the chart.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
StockCharts Public Chart List
Please read our Complete Disclosure
Tuesday, February 17, 2009
Swing Strategies
Liquidity is always a consideration in any trade. More so, if you're into trading a down trending stock. The consideration 1st should be the liquidity of the trade. In a down trending stock, bottom picking or dip picking, depending on your assessment of the trend, may make your assessment differ from mine. It will be decided by your choice of trend based on the big trend, medium trend or a spike within the down trend.
Trading a down trending stock is much like catching a falling knife... you can die the death of 1000 cuts.
Buying the lows on a down trending stock dictates a sell the top strategy. This is a very different concept than a buy the low strategy for a rising trend. You will be a rouge swinging gorilla trader.
Remember, if your buying dips on a downtrend, your counting on upswings from bottom pickers to give you a few pennies on the move to the top bollinger. In order to sell the top when it reaches your goal, or if the trend starts to turn against you (which it already is), you must be able to liquidate your shares quickly.
As an example... keeping the risk down requires you to consider a purchase of shares probably not exceeding 10% of the average bid dictated by the restraints of your pocketbook.
Trading a down trend often resembles day trading. On a downtrend, buying the dips won't last much more than a few days at most. You are really pushing your skill to last longer than three (3) days waiting for the top.
A dip is a volatile drop usually along the lower bollinger. (lower bollinger skid) and there is a few tricks to catching the cusp of the bounce.
If a 10% purchase of the average bid is made where up swings don't allow for a 20% return on a sell the top strategy selling to the bid, then you shouldn't be trading.
A real gorilla trader wouldn't be trading a downtrend anyhow, so you probably shouldn't be trading, unless your averaging/swinging into a bottom pick, where the rules of engagement are clearly defined.
Shorting in general as of Feb 19 2009, as a consideration at this late stage, is next to suicide unless your really well repaired.
Gorilla Simple.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
StockCharts Public Chart List
Please read our Complete Disclosure
Trading a down trending stock is much like catching a falling knife... you can die the death of 1000 cuts.
Buying the lows on a down trending stock dictates a sell the top strategy. This is a very different concept than a buy the low strategy for a rising trend. You will be a rouge swinging gorilla trader.
Remember, if your buying dips on a downtrend, your counting on upswings from bottom pickers to give you a few pennies on the move to the top bollinger. In order to sell the top when it reaches your goal, or if the trend starts to turn against you (which it already is), you must be able to liquidate your shares quickly.
As an example... keeping the risk down requires you to consider a purchase of shares probably not exceeding 10% of the average bid dictated by the restraints of your pocketbook.
Trading a down trend often resembles day trading. On a downtrend, buying the dips won't last much more than a few days at most. You are really pushing your skill to last longer than three (3) days waiting for the top.
A dip is a volatile drop usually along the lower bollinger. (lower bollinger skid) and there is a few tricks to catching the cusp of the bounce.
If a 10% purchase of the average bid is made where up swings don't allow for a 20% return on a sell the top strategy selling to the bid, then you shouldn't be trading.
A real gorilla trader wouldn't be trading a downtrend anyhow, so you probably shouldn't be trading, unless your averaging/swinging into a bottom pick, where the rules of engagement are clearly defined.
Shorting in general as of Feb 19 2009, as a consideration at this late stage, is next to suicide unless your really well repaired.
Gorilla Simple.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
StockCharts Public Chart List
Please read our Complete Disclosure
The Big Bounce
I have a thought about Paladin in the present consolidation it is experiencing and a particular phenomenon that may become a part of this consolidation...
I don't have a crystal ball, and I don't have a name for the phenomenon, but I will mention the attributes of this phenomenon so that you can be aware of the possibility.
This is a "could be play" because in reality, Paladin is still in a big picture downtrend. The up move we are experiencing potentially could be the first part of a major reversal. Until TA shows a revese, this is Bottom picking 101. The Bottom we are testing in the big picture is $1.40. The present high target for this intermediary up wave is about $3.50. There is room for the move easily observed in any technical analysis done. A weekly study is where this breaks down or so it seems.
In a weekly study, the upper bollinger is a touch point we are almost touching {bearish in a ranging or down trend assessment) but in a weekly study, and relative to the high in a weekly study, this down move is very oversold. An upper bollinger touch is usually bearish in most cases, but in this case not necessarily bearish..., it's just that in a weekly, we can have swings of more than a dollar quite easily in some cases up into many dollars, so the weekly is not a place to try and trade from when it comes to positioning. In this case there is potential for the phenomenon.
In the middle of all this is the phenomenon, which, short term, is related to the 11,000,000 million share churn a few days ago. This may be the trigger for the action described below. It was a pretty decisive top churn. This is positioning 101.
All that selling got rid of a lot of resistance, and the sellers would like to position themselves for a bounce. They will be using most likely a basic charting technique to spot the buy in. In this case it will show up as a lower bollinger touch. The lower bollinger touch (is bullish in an up trend) may play out just as planned in this medium term uptrend and the lower bollinger touch is being demonstrated in the PDN.TO chart series listed in:
StockCharts Public Chart List
However, the churn sellers were a determined bunch and will/may not be buyers until there is what they consider a good spread for the swing out and as we wasted a lot of bulls on this churn at $2.90, so it may be, that the bounce may well overshoot our preliminary target of $2.30 (we are presently playing a buy the dip strategy for an uptrend lower bollinger touch), and turn into a break through, or, what I call a lower bollinger skid. This lower bollinger skid is a great opportunity for positioning in one of the Big picture swings looking for the big bottom.
One thing about a lower bollinger skid is it's a guess as to where the bounce will take place, as a lower bollinger skid is very unpredictable in the sense that you may not want to predict a target, yet on the flip side it is very chartable. If the momentum builds, a lower bollinger skid can be a wild ride.
It will be unsettling if a lower bollinger skid takes place, but there is a silver lining.
With the major resistance removed at $2.90 or little left, if and when the next (bounce) buy in actually takes place, assuming we experience a lower bollinger skid moving below $2.30, it is possible that the resulting bounce (run) will finally make it through that resistance at $2.90
Huh? "What is that"? you say..
This action described is a common occurrence on stocks that are destined to break out.
There could be more than one occurrence, but each one is manageable.
It is the final dip before the big breakout disguised as trend breakdown. I have seen this final dip before the big breakout many times.
Be very alert for the possibility.
If such a scenario plays out, it will have some awesome potential for a great play. I personally am very alert for this potential. I know I'd be a buyer when the signal appears.
TA is not about predicting, it is about knowing where you are, and reacting properly.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
StockCharts Public Chart List
Please read our Complete Disclosure
I don't have a crystal ball, and I don't have a name for the phenomenon, but I will mention the attributes of this phenomenon so that you can be aware of the possibility.
This is a "could be play" because in reality, Paladin is still in a big picture downtrend. The up move we are experiencing potentially could be the first part of a major reversal. Until TA shows a revese, this is Bottom picking 101. The Bottom we are testing in the big picture is $1.40. The present high target for this intermediary up wave is about $3.50. There is room for the move easily observed in any technical analysis done. A weekly study is where this breaks down or so it seems.
In a weekly study, the upper bollinger is a touch point we are almost touching {bearish in a ranging or down trend assessment) but in a weekly study, and relative to the high in a weekly study, this down move is very oversold. An upper bollinger touch is usually bearish in most cases, but in this case not necessarily bearish..., it's just that in a weekly, we can have swings of more than a dollar quite easily in some cases up into many dollars, so the weekly is not a place to try and trade from when it comes to positioning. In this case there is potential for the phenomenon.
In the middle of all this is the phenomenon, which, short term, is related to the 11,000,000 million share churn a few days ago. This may be the trigger for the action described below. It was a pretty decisive top churn. This is positioning 101.
All that selling got rid of a lot of resistance, and the sellers would like to position themselves for a bounce. They will be using most likely a basic charting technique to spot the buy in. In this case it will show up as a lower bollinger touch. The lower bollinger touch (is bullish in an up trend) may play out just as planned in this medium term uptrend and the lower bollinger touch is being demonstrated in the PDN.TO chart series listed in:
StockCharts Public Chart List
However, the churn sellers were a determined bunch and will/may not be buyers until there is what they consider a good spread for the swing out and as we wasted a lot of bulls on this churn at $2.90, so it may be, that the bounce may well overshoot our preliminary target of $2.30 (we are presently playing a buy the dip strategy for an uptrend lower bollinger touch), and turn into a break through, or, what I call a lower bollinger skid. This lower bollinger skid is a great opportunity for positioning in one of the Big picture swings looking for the big bottom.
One thing about a lower bollinger skid is it's a guess as to where the bounce will take place, as a lower bollinger skid is very unpredictable in the sense that you may not want to predict a target, yet on the flip side it is very chartable. If the momentum builds, a lower bollinger skid can be a wild ride.
It will be unsettling if a lower bollinger skid takes place, but there is a silver lining.
With the major resistance removed at $2.90 or little left, if and when the next (bounce) buy in actually takes place, assuming we experience a lower bollinger skid moving below $2.30, it is possible that the resulting bounce (run) will finally make it through that resistance at $2.90
Huh? "What is that"? you say..
This action described is a common occurrence on stocks that are destined to break out.
There could be more than one occurrence, but each one is manageable.
It is the final dip before the big breakout disguised as trend breakdown. I have seen this final dip before the big breakout many times.
Be very alert for the possibility.
If such a scenario plays out, it will have some awesome potential for a great play. I personally am very alert for this potential. I know I'd be a buyer when the signal appears.
TA is not about predicting, it is about knowing where you are, and reacting properly.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
StockCharts Public Chart List
Please read our Complete Disclosure
Monday, February 16, 2009
New Stocks
After doing some research gorilla style, some stocks worth following have made it to the watch list. No comments have been posted as of yet but some Due Diligence is suggested.
AVL.TO Avalon Ventures
SVM.TO Silvercorp Metals Inc.
SCP.TO Sprott Resource Corp
It appears these stocks have captured some followers and are worth tracking for trading or long hold opportunities.
StockCharts Public Chart List
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
StockCharts Public Chart List
Please read our Complete Disclosure
AVL.TO Avalon Ventures
SVM.TO Silvercorp Metals Inc.
SCP.TO Sprott Resource Corp
It appears these stocks have captured some followers and are worth tracking for trading or long hold opportunities.
StockCharts Public Chart List
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
StockCharts Public Chart List
Please read our Complete Disclosure
Paladin.TO
This is going to be a short week for trading and I expect it will likely influence the volatility of Paladins's recent consolidation.
It is hard to say what that 11 million share churn last week will inspire. The huge volume should have made a big gain, but spun out on a 20 cent move, which for Paladin on that kind of volume was ridiculous. Some would call it building support , however I think it created a huge overhang at least temporarily. It is my bet that Paladin will test some lower prices before it recovers. It looks like $2.30 but if we use the %b bollinger indicator to give the buy signal ...then we have to hold judgement until the %b drops a bit more... shown in the chart posted here.
StockCharts Public Chart List
Paladin is listed on the third page amongst other charts...
Check this link and you will be provided with the best description available to my knowledge that explains the chart layout you see.
StockCharts Archives
It demonstrates a lower bollinger touch, which is a very common buy signal provided the trend is accurately identified as at least ranging or better yet up, until proven different.
The green circles represent the buy signals as demonstrated by the
%b and this fits in well with a buy the dip strategy.
Pretty simple really... but I have added some indicators to get better depth in the charts following.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
StockCharts Public Chart List
Please read our Complete Disclosure
It is hard to say what that 11 million share churn last week will inspire. The huge volume should have made a big gain, but spun out on a 20 cent move, which for Paladin on that kind of volume was ridiculous. Some would call it building support , however I think it created a huge overhang at least temporarily. It is my bet that Paladin will test some lower prices before it recovers. It looks like $2.30 but if we use the %b bollinger indicator to give the buy signal ...then we have to hold judgement until the %b drops a bit more... shown in the chart posted here.
StockCharts Public Chart List
Paladin is listed on the third page amongst other charts...
Check this link and you will be provided with the best description available to my knowledge that explains the chart layout you see.
StockCharts Archives
It demonstrates a lower bollinger touch, which is a very common buy signal provided the trend is accurately identified as at least ranging or better yet up, until proven different.
The green circles represent the buy signals as demonstrated by the
%b and this fits in well with a buy the dip strategy.
Pretty simple really... but I have added some indicators to get better depth in the charts following.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
StockCharts Public Chart List
Please read our Complete Disclosure
The Left and Right Hand of The Devil
ADX trend and strength recognition.
50 day MA and 200 Day MA
Bollinger
MACD Default
StockRSI 14
StockRSI 28
StockRSI 70
StockRSI 140
Chaikin Money Flow
MACD histogram
RSI
Full stochastic 15,5,5
The StochRSI has three (3) additional settings, which are a sub-study of the Momentum group.
"StochRSI" is an indicator of the indicator "RSI". When prices are trending, RSI average reads are hard to figure when they are moving a little above or below the 50 line. Extremes are the signals to be looked for where the average is above RSI 70 or below 30 and this usually signals the start of a reversal; up or down. During times when extremes are not present, The StockRSI can be used to tell whether RSI is oversold or overbought (dip picking or top picking), while RSI is trending in the mid range of an uptrend. One problem has always been continuation of a top or bottom has caused many to close a position when the trend had not finished and, this is why we use the sub studies of the StockRSI 70 and 140 to verify the continuation.
StockRSI was not originally designed to be read this way, but the 70 setting StockRSI is an early signal moving to 80 or 20 that often leads the 140 StockRSI setting in the move to 80 or 20 (The reverse is true for a top as well as a bottom).
Strong fundamentals and an understanding of market motivators in a strong or weak market will change your charting to voodoo charting. With practice,and discipline you may be gazing the crystal ball yourself.
We prefer not to short so we reserve our searchs for bullish settings.
What we are looking for is strong stocks in a strong market where the StockRSI 140 moves above the 80 line and holds, indicating a high potential of a continuation uptrend.
The core of this study is the RSI Relative Strength Indicator (default setting) and the MACD Moving Average Conversion Diversion (default setting) used in a daily candle chart...... these are the Left and right hand of the devil.
I like to group studies with three (3 to 4 ) core indicators because we have three major categories. In the volume category there are other volume indicators to chose from, but as the third (4th)core indicator... I like Chaikin Money Flow - CMF default because it pairs with the MACD visually.
Other indicators play a supporting role but it is the RSI default - (Momentum) and MACD default - (Trend) that play a staring role.
This study actually works quite well in most cases even without volatility.
Three (3) Buy signals are generated when the Macd averages cross to the upside while under the MACD trigger line timed with RSI dipping under 30 while the CMF is showing positive divergence from below compared to price (or CMF is moving above 0).
This is a bottom picking strategy and often the buy indication is a leading heads up for a reversal as the price may still be declining. If you are charting a strong fundamentally sound stock or exchange, and have solid speculation to rely on, then this study works even better.
The three variable studies of the StochRSI indicators are momentum, and when they go positive after a positive diversion suggested by the other indicators, StochRSI (140) over 80 is an indication of a sustained up move where a buy the dip strategy may be successful.
If you're into real whippy type trades, this study can provide some pretty exciting action. Try it out on some of the higher volume volatile stocks using 60 minutes instead of daily. Your focus is on the core RSI Relative Strength Indicator (default setting) dropping below 30 and the MACD Moving Average Conversion Diversion (default setting) averages crossing over to the upside
The other indicators MACD & RSI become unreliable in a continuation type trend, and redundant, often responding erratically (hard to read) so the focus shifts to the Sub Study StockRSI indicators to read what the MACD and RSI might be doing as far as a continuation is concerned..
The TSX was used to demonstrate this study at this link...
Left and Right Hand of The Devil
Bottom Picking EVG.TO
Bottom Picking Variation EVG.TO with this variation is to demonstrate one additional indicator that could be added to the above study... this variation indicator is the very bottom indicator in the study.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
StockCharts Public Chart List
Please read our Complete Disclosure
Create a Default Chart Study Baseline
As an amature trader, I mean non-professional with no licence, which, on the flip side means; after 9 years as an amature trader I consider my style as being much like a seasoned gorilla fighter.
I have tried many websites to further my charting skills, however, after much trial, only StockCharts has the tools available to satisfy my curious nature in this art.
I was reading in Stockscharts Mailbag, (Chip Anderson gave a compelling answer) a poster complained about the complexity of technical analysis, and I must agree, but my own experience dictates a bit of different response; that if you have the wrong concept of what technical analysis is all about... It won't do what it can do, and you will miss getting into stride with it and it will indeed be elusive.
As a gorilla fighter (trader) I'm interested in only what works at making money for me, so I don't concern myself with the designing of indicators except to get a basic understanding of the implications of changing the settings and in that end, I hope my experiences works as well for you.
Addressing the complexity of money making technical analysis is a challenge; one that I feel I can answer by focusing on my gorilla concerns, but I also acknowledge that there must be some starting point of understanding that leads logically to some kind of practical conclusion. Hence, we move into a bit of the complexity of technical analysis, but approach it gorilla style.
Today I would like to establish a starting point. This exercise involves building a chart that will be forever be called your "Default Chart Study".
At first glance you would think this "Default Chart Study" is a victim of Multicollinearity but from a gorilla's perspective, it is an exercise for getting real-time experience with all the indicators and settings chosen. It is the perfect choice for a Default Study because it will demonstrate how individual (different) indicators react under the same influence for a particular stock. The purpose of the chart is to collectively compare indicators that you can group in a non-multicollinearity way. You will come back to this "Default Chart Study" time and time again to collect your emotions and get a check on reality. The settings used have come from years of comparison. You will make a very profound observation that will create an understanding that allows you to better focus where you should focus...
Customizing indicators and settings to follow the particular cycles and gyrations of an individual fundamentally sound stock can generate some pretty accurate buying and selling strategies.
"Multicollinearity" is a statistical term for a problem that is common in technical analysis. That is, when one unknowingly uses the same type of information more than once. One needs to be careful and not utilize technical indicators that reveal the same type of information. See StockChart's ChartSchool article on Multicollinearity. We gorillas must take Multicollinearity head on.
The different aspects of the chart reflects my own personal intuition but I want you to experiment and develop your own experience. Feel free to make an original and then create a copy, of which, you will stamp with your own experience.
I have chosen the size (width dimensions of the chart) because it is compatible with bull boards for posting and use it in a daily chart setting because for my purposes, it demonstrated the different variables that appeal to me. You can use the default settings in a weekly or 60 minute study with the same efficiency. After years of practice, this chart never changes for me unless I display it a weekly, hourly and at times down to one minute time frame.
The indicators are positioned in the chart in a particular order, because over time, groupings of the indicators have produced some interesting results and demonstrated some very solid visual realizations for me. I shall point out these groupings and you will avoid Multicollinearity.
You should also take notice of the settings for the individual indicators, which have developed over time, to be a medium setting that works for most deviations you may decide to create from the default chart study.
When everything is working right, you will be able to access the "Default Study Chart" nested in the "Kenuck SmallCap Trader" public charts list at this link...
TSX Default study
The TSX and Vancouver exchanges are used to illustrate the "Default Chart Study" thereby gorilla dealing with three birds in one stroke. Picking a bottom, demonstrating it, and illustrating a chart style.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
StockCharts Public Chart List
Please read our Complete Disclosure
I have tried many websites to further my charting skills, however, after much trial, only StockCharts has the tools available to satisfy my curious nature in this art.
I was reading in Stockscharts Mailbag, (Chip Anderson gave a compelling answer) a poster complained about the complexity of technical analysis, and I must agree, but my own experience dictates a bit of different response; that if you have the wrong concept of what technical analysis is all about... It won't do what it can do, and you will miss getting into stride with it and it will indeed be elusive.
As a gorilla fighter (trader) I'm interested in only what works at making money for me, so I don't concern myself with the designing of indicators except to get a basic understanding of the implications of changing the settings and in that end, I hope my experiences works as well for you.
Addressing the complexity of money making technical analysis is a challenge; one that I feel I can answer by focusing on my gorilla concerns, but I also acknowledge that there must be some starting point of understanding that leads logically to some kind of practical conclusion. Hence, we move into a bit of the complexity of technical analysis, but approach it gorilla style.
Today I would like to establish a starting point. This exercise involves building a chart that will be forever be called your "Default Chart Study".
At first glance you would think this "Default Chart Study" is a victim of Multicollinearity but from a gorilla's perspective, it is an exercise for getting real-time experience with all the indicators and settings chosen. It is the perfect choice for a Default Study because it will demonstrate how individual (different) indicators react under the same influence for a particular stock. The purpose of the chart is to collectively compare indicators that you can group in a non-multicollinearity way. You will come back to this "Default Chart Study" time and time again to collect your emotions and get a check on reality. The settings used have come from years of comparison. You will make a very profound observation that will create an understanding that allows you to better focus where you should focus...
Customizing indicators and settings to follow the particular cycles and gyrations of an individual fundamentally sound stock can generate some pretty accurate buying and selling strategies.
"Multicollinearity" is a statistical term for a problem that is common in technical analysis. That is, when one unknowingly uses the same type of information more than once. One needs to be careful and not utilize technical indicators that reveal the same type of information. See StockChart's ChartSchool article on Multicollinearity. We gorillas must take Multicollinearity head on.
The different aspects of the chart reflects my own personal intuition but I want you to experiment and develop your own experience. Feel free to make an original and then create a copy, of which, you will stamp with your own experience.
I have chosen the size (width dimensions of the chart) because it is compatible with bull boards for posting and use it in a daily chart setting because for my purposes, it demonstrated the different variables that appeal to me. You can use the default settings in a weekly or 60 minute study with the same efficiency. After years of practice, this chart never changes for me unless I display it a weekly, hourly and at times down to one minute time frame.
The indicators are positioned in the chart in a particular order, because over time, groupings of the indicators have produced some interesting results and demonstrated some very solid visual realizations for me. I shall point out these groupings and you will avoid Multicollinearity.
You should also take notice of the settings for the individual indicators, which have developed over time, to be a medium setting that works for most deviations you may decide to create from the default chart study.
When everything is working right, you will be able to access the "Default Study Chart" nested in the "Kenuck SmallCap Trader" public charts list at this link...
TSX Default study
The TSX and Vancouver exchanges are used to illustrate the "Default Chart Study" thereby gorilla dealing with three birds in one stroke. Picking a bottom, demonstrating it, and illustrating a chart style.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
StockCharts Public Chart List
Please read our Complete Disclosure
Sunday, February 15, 2009
New Picks
Over the next few days we'll add some stocks to the pick list we have been watching and as we do so, the analysis will become more apparent as the choices solidify and get some depth as some re-organization is undertaken.
We do have a technical glitch in posting StockCharts charts to Kenuck SmallCap Trader which has not been resolved. In response, we shall reposition our charting picks to the StockCharts Public list. In the same time frame we will also keep adding to the main website content.
The TSX and Vancouver have bottomed in November December and there is quite a swell in our private watch list.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
StockCharts Public Chart List
Please read our Complete Disclosure
We do have a technical glitch in posting StockCharts charts to Kenuck SmallCap Trader which has not been resolved. In response, we shall reposition our charting picks to the StockCharts Public list. In the same time frame we will also keep adding to the main website content.
The TSX and Vancouver have bottomed in November December and there is quite a swell in our private watch list.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
StockCharts Public Chart List
Please read our Complete Disclosure
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