Topping or Swinging

In the right side bar is a window that describes a summary of the considerations needed to be accounted for ... "Trading Tips" ..... You need to have a good grasp of recognizing an up trend, and in a perfect world there are some basic considerations... If you can do that, then recognizing a down trend, and a ranging move are taken for granted.

I always approach a swing opportunity as a top. Picking a top can be a slippery slope and as such, any assistance you can get should help so I recommend  the $8.95 Market Club Trial Offer to start and keep you swinging successfully... the trade triangle technology is good as it gets for picking trend reversals. 

The tops I pick.......... tend to be spiky, and pops the upper bollinger one to three days (on gaps) I usually aim to wait for the backfill to start or a close back under the upper bollinger....!

Only after a swing works it's way into a position that confirms it was a swing, can I call it a swing. You may be able to use the below descriptions to develop skills.

You should  view this ADX video... how-trade-trends-using-adx. in order to identify the trend, trend strength and in between trends, if the market is ranging...

Next is an introductory  discussion on the bollinger the best as I have seen in less than 5 minutes in this You Tube Video says it all for the way the bollinger is used...... Relative support and resistance in ranging conditions.

View these two  links on macd using part 1- macd indicator-part-2 to freshen up...

You should view this learn-trade-stochastic-oscillator-video Stochastic videos..... they refer to the Slow Stochastic, but my own preference is the Full Stochastic 15,5,5.... it reads smoother usually, and displays the crossovers better in my opinion. Try the 14,3 Slow Stochastics and the 15,5 Slow Stochastics... it really is a matter of personal choice. The stochastic is used in combination with a trend line (very important to weed out stochastic fake outs).

As for the RSI...The stochastic indicator is much the same as an RSI, but I prefer to use them both, combining the the MACD with the RSI. you should also refresh your understanding of the relative-strength-index-rsi-trading video.

Once you have that part in your mind.... you need to apply the supporting indicators to confirm a ranging top, or bottom, or a ranging breakout of the range up or down riding the bollinger...

Range picking a top is pretty well straight forward....

However....

In an uptrend... It is not just enough to trade the bollinger top and  bottom touch with confidence... you can get in trouble doing that....

I use a trading study called "The Left and Right hand of the Devil" that incorporates the MACD crossovers with the RSI over 70 under 30 extreme readings... they make a good pair of confirmation indicators for extreme conditions.

The study I came up with is comprised of, (However, ...:indicators that your already familiar with may work better for you) and are in this order, as a personal preference, because the positioning of the indicators compliment the surrounding above, and below indicators, present a visual picture that I think supports the best expression as a picture:

1) The default ADX... (Above the price) is the trading indicator which defines the trend strength, and whether the price is ranging OR TRENDING

2) An average study incorporating a  50 day MA... and 200 day MA for the "Sweet Spot Filter triangle trading the bottom pattern" using the 50 and 200 day averages filters out a lot of weak stocks... best used in a broad market or sector upswing.

3) Default Bollinger (20)which includes a 20 day MA for support and resistance entry, and exit in a ranging price. However both the lower bollinger and 20 day average can be levels of support in an uptrend.

(the rest of the indicators are set below in the following order)


4) StochRSI  (4 different settings) used to read continuations and read the RSI 14 as well... explained in the study. These 4 indicators are all the same, but the different settings allows for a depth speculation. They are a sub study. The key indicator in the group is the StochRSI (140) such that a move up over 80 under the right supporting conditions, signals a continutation in progress leading to a pick the dip strategy.


5) Default MACD 12,26,9 For trending momentum, crossovers and diversion
                                (LEFT HAND OF THE DEVIL)

6) Default CMF Momentum to account for accumulation and support MACD trigger line crossovers.

7) MACD 12,26,9 Histogram.....Isolates the histogram, and displays it better (I like it... you may not), and compliments the below RSI.......... (histogram crossovers are in sync with MACD average crosses) so looking at one... you know what the other is doing... just a point of interest. The MACD tends to confirm the RSI in extreme situations better... but still works reasonably in a ranging situation.

8) Default RSI          (RIGHT HAND OF THE DEVIL)  Best reads extreme tops (over 70) or bottoms (under 30), in between readings are hard to evaluate if they are overbought, or oversold..

9) As opposed to the Slow stochastic in the videos.... I like a Full Stochastic 15,5,5 (rather than the 14,3,3) which both track about the same, but the latter is too squished for my taste as the former 15,5,5 shows a wider more easily seen plot used to pick the top in combination with a break in a trend line drawn as a price overlay for the uptrend, and associated with a double top chart pattern in a lot of cases. the price overlay trend line is important..... The trend line holding... spots fake out Stochastic tops, and when it breaks... the Stochastic top can be considered real. You may not get out on the cusp... but you know where things are likely to be going, even if you get whipsawed a bit in your adjustment exit strategy.

If the trend line is not broken by the price, then the stochastic top is likely a fake out where the stochastic can be read as an oversold/overbought within the trend indication.

Best practiced in an uptrending broad market, or, at least uptrending sector.

So putting it all together   Here is a link to the study..... a more detailed description...


The Left and Right Hand of The Devil


As well click on the labels at the bottom of the post to bring up other discussions.

Dave GLTA

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A due diligence search idea ....!

Looking for articles on Seeking Alpha... I searched for "Goldgroup" to see if there was anything in there... click the title above... from the list ...I selected this one The-gold-report/105950-mickey-fulp-cherry-picking-undervalued-juniors .......... you might try the same thing with something your interested in.... check out the links listed below in each post on the bottom of this and any post, or try the   "Links List"





GLTA Lostoutwest

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SWY.TO

Not allowing for the details... which are quite positive.... SWY.TO (Diamonds) is headed for a share consolidation... in the area of a post price $3.05... due to procuring solid financing with new blood... the whole deal appears to be for one of the few reasons a rollback of 5 to 1 can be justified as a necessary positive for growth as one analyst measures it and I agree.. ... However...  as a Market Motivator (share consolidations)... I'm sure most of the market will be surprised when it closes, and when it closes... the new price although justified may suffer.... The smaller shareholders will hold 1/5 of their original position (although worth the same), this will mean in some cases a pshycological adjustment, and a leverage problem for short term holders, and it will now effectively limit trading abilities, so they will trade out for cheaper shares they can hold large positions in. As a chartist this has been brought home to me on many occasions,,, The consolidation does however make it a very solid charting prospect for the 2011 Watch List with fundamentals like the details explain...  If your comfortable dealing with a $3.05/share stock, and own in excess of 5000 will = 1000 )and further amounts going up in 500 share blocks to avoid partial blocks shares... it may not be a concern for a long term hold...  short term is yet to be determined using technical analysis.

GLTA Lostoutwest


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Heads Up CXD.V

CXD.V is a contender for the 2011 Pick list, and is showing a sweet spot bottom pattern.. slow moving, but well positioned, and recently flushed with cash (8,000,000) moving towards the 1,000,000 mark AU.... No shorts to speak of...  it has a tendency to gap down on the open...  a buy.hold in the area of .65 cents should control risk. updated in the Kenuck SmallCap Trader Some cloak and dagger there as well... Check the StockHouse board...   Stockhouse board CXD  should be an interesting watch... the price pattern is a symmetrical triangle of which a breakout will only be hindsight.

GLTA Lostoutwest


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Update DEI.V & URC.V

They just keep getting bigger .... the third report DEI.V of an increase in financing... financing has got to be just about the biggest worry for a gorilla trader...  If there is no cash flow, Explorers need to stay on top of projects is the biggest concern..... FT shares .475 cents and warrants @.55 is a sign to buy... now it all comes down to charting the move.

URC.V 4,000,000 @ .30 cents... turns this into a hold... they really needed the money!

 GLTA Lostoutwest


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What's a Bottom Pattern?

This link leads to a thumbnail strip of different bottoms and descriptions from different websites:..........  Bottom Patterns
Take your pick... I Like the style described below, but there may be a style that better suits you in the thumbnail strip.

A bottom pattern has a few different attributes, (V .... W along with Falling Wedges and Reverse Head and Shoulders etc, and they may all be a part),  but using a bottom pattern based on the price along with the 50 and 200 day average can filter out a lot of noise.  You can use any average you want, but I prefer these ones as they are traditionally accepted and acted upon.... As with any strategy... bottom picking is best practiced in a bullish broad market uptrend... In the bottom picking pattern you will see the 50 day average converging on the 200 day average (the price may drift in and out of the sweetspot)... stretch your imagination a bit and without drawing it .... you should be able to see the triangle trade developing.... when the price moves into the triangle's apex... it has just entered the sweetspot (between the converging 50 and 200 day average) and we are looking for a 200 day average break, and back fill to the 200 day average, which in most cases portrays 200 day average support and position for super long runs.. a solid pipe line and you maybe voodoo charting.

Looking at the ADX you may or may not see it rising to over 20, (gives some bounce strength ) but should show the +DI and - DI moving under .25 preferebly the 20.... (ranging) indicating oversold in position to move into a trend of unknown direction, however because we are trading in an up market, solid stock and sector, it does have a bullish bias to predicting the breakout trend direction.

Bring in the lower bollinger touch concept (range trading, you may throw in a couple of dare devil trades... not my style) in line with the "Left and right Hand of the Devil study, and you just could be getting ready to smoke.

Bottom Picking EVG.TO

Bottom Picking Variation EVG.TO with this variation is to demonstrate one additional indicator that could be added to the above study... this variation indicator is the very bottom indicator in the study.

Dave GLTA

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Update URC.V - DEI.V

URC is looking very sick ... the price is placing to the right of a lower bollinger touch, and looks set up for a lower bollinger skid... If it was me I would take a small loss, and go to cash until the chart cleans up. Don't buy....

DEI.V looks like it may move to the mid .30s.. so caution, and perhaps a reduction in holdings or go to cash on an uptick. I think it will be a safe hold

GLTA Lostoutwest

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Update EVG.TO

This will be one of the 2011 picks... it is in an early breakout... no shorts to speak of... one more week of Tax selling... the chart is showing strong indications of an uptrend... updated comments in the Stockcharts Public List

GLTA Lostoutwest


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Update SQI.V

looking over the short lists... I can see up to the end of November as of today, and there seems to be a small short against SQI...   that being said, it looks to be easing.... as there is no uptick rule for shorting, having been eliminated the last year or so, it is possible to sell to the bid to cover... if you were selling to yourself (A house maybe)  (which would be cornering the market and is a compliance violation I'm told, and is not allowed at a personal level in my own accounts per say).. You would not do that as a current trade ...selling and buying the same instant would not provide a profitable corner in itself, but if you had been shorting  earlier at a higher price... then you would be holding the price down flushing out sellers as you covered, weening off the squeeze... a little tricky I suppose....

I could get more dark in conspiracy... but the end result would be the same... it was a definite down day...

A new age naked short cover is entirely in the realm of possibilities.

I have noted though, on many occasions, the dip before the pop is  part of the program....

Short History
Symbol Report Date Volume Change

SQI - V 2010-11-30 424,259 -142,141

SQI - V 2010-11-15 566,400 -123,525

SQI - V 2010-10-31 689,925 -234,075

SQI - V 2010-10-15 924,000 277,100



GLTA Lostoutwest


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Some serious selling

For the most part the last couple of months has seen a Thursday lighten up on the selling, and we make some gains across the board... this mornings the whitecaps are unsettling... the weakness shows up in the indicators and charts on Stockcharts Public List

GLTA Lostoutwest


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Stock Charting Page Index

Today's date is December 1, 2012 this marks a new timeline of blog content and format style of posting that should vastly improve the navigation to points of interest and educational archiving.

This page contains links to charting study pages within this blog. Start here for a search.

Argex Titanium  Charting  Start Page 

Cematrix Charting Start Page

Strategic Oil & Gas Charting Start Page

Nemaska Lithium Charting Start Page

Ajunction starting Page

 

A market scan is used to find stocks that will be listed here. The scan is run every day as a filter to pick up new issues not flagged in a previous scan. At times some issues pop in and out as they maneuver through the different state of being bullish and bearish.

A general list of contenders will reside in the following list

The Public Chart List

Each charting study in this blog will link to a core start page where an introduction describes the strategy and considerations that might be employed in the rationalization for taking positions. Studies for the most part will be charting early stage trend, chart consolidations, bounces, and established trends, some of which, may stray out of Canada a bit... also including some other sectors other than mining commodities (this will be in the interest of approaching sectors that may not be quite in favour, but have a strong potential to be a mover)...

The theme of this page is to list links to starting charting pages for stocks that have specific charting qualities in an effort to try to identify early stage bullish trend indications resulting from consolidations or new issues gaining ground.

They will be sourced from links provided across this blog down the right sidebar... Monitored on Level II watches, and charted in real time with depth... Shorts and insiders will be as well taken into account along with "Market Motivators" considered.

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Santa's Choke Hold re-visited

Volume in my Level II open for a Wednesday is pretty light... it will likely pick up later in the day... but I would expect some whippy action over the next three weeks... It would be prudent to sit on some dry powder, and if you want to buy something... go for support buys to lower risk.. chasing risk has increased.

GLTA Lostoutwest


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StockHouse Public Portfolio

Go straight to the list ... Home Page Public List ...The link leads to my home page on Stockhouse ...This is not a portfolio... actually a watch list in this case. I sometimes trade in, and out of issues listed... much like two or three day trading. I don't attempt to track those trades by posting those trades on the main current watch board... If for some reason a person was to try and keep up, it would likely be disastrous more so than it can already be.

One of the benefits of maintaining a said watch list (you should consider it for yourself) is that it can give you an overall progress, short term, by measuring the broad market pullback in individual stocks in your watch list, or at least the individual stocks in the watch list pertaining to a sector, if they are a mixture of multiple sectors... as well it gives an overall look at the quality of your selections. A yardstick if you will.

You can also expect to see the value of trading with the broad market, such that when the broad market turns against you in a cycle (you will be able to spot it more easily)... you will see all the broad gains dwindle before your eyes, so keep an eye on the total percentage gain net. That's the total listed in the bottom right corner of the list. If the cycle turns... it may be a time to re-assess your holdings and/or your trading strategy... allowing for a greater element of risk, allowing for more whipsaw, and false buy signals... which will take away from the pile.

Protecting the pile is the number 1 rule! A monkey can throw darts, and make good choices if he is trading a broad market upswing in a strong sector in good speculative stocks... this leads many novice traders at risk because they think this easy... they stumble into the cycle, and get lucky, thinking they they have found Nirvana, only to be be served up for dinner when the broad market turns against them, and nothing works, and they die the death of a thousand cuts trying to pick the dips when there are none... just a falling knife.

With that in mind, if the list is in the green as far as gains go, then a quick rule would be the market is still with us... Here's the link.... StockhouseWatch List  ...The percentage Change column measures the back fill when things are good, and when things are bad, it measures the length of a downtrend. In a Bearish market cycle the watch list could theoretically move into a loss rather quickly and if it does... then only the worst will be removed, and the watch list becomes a field of bottom picks, or dip picks... It's my yardstick and now yours.

For entertainment only. Please read our Complete Disclosure


GLTA Lostoutwest


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Update SQI.V Tax selling

Tax selling is usually reserved for Mid to Big Caps for long term investors for the best effect.

In small caps... it is done, but I think on a large scale, overall not so much, however it is done in a targeted fashion, and I think SQI.V could be getting a taste of it. Just so happens my experience is that while Tax selling can be done to the end of the year.... the pressure is off during Dec 25 to New Years because the holidays are disruptive, and the logical time to actually make the move at the last minute is about the 22nd of December and be done with it... possibly an explanation for the Santa Rally in the same Christmas to New Year period!

With that pressure off, the breakout suggested by the narrow bollinger could move sometime soon by this weeks close or next week. If you're a bull this is good.

Just an observation.

GLTA Lostoutwest


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"Up your average" Something to think about for candles...

If your watching a chart real time... be it connected to a level II platform, or not, and you want to skill up on the entry strategy for the intraday... try and visualize the formation of a candle, and the sequence in which it is formed... (this is for serious charting fanatics). You'll have to go back to the previous day, and look at candles to verify this. You would do this because in order to visualize the nature of trading (buying) off the next day's open you will hopefully break the habit of chasing.

In almost every case... a candle has a body consisting of a top and bottom of the candle body itself... that is the open and the close.... then.... above and below is usually some type of tail... Which, if you think about it.... it doesn't really matter which tail is put in first... just the fact that a tail is put in at all is worth noting for the purpose of this insight.

Assuming you have the trend right (in this case for this post it would be up) We know what the open is... on the open... because it is the first trading price we see... then  we know that a tail will be placed in most cases, be it up or down with a high average of occurrence, so it stands to reason.... speculatively bidding just under the open is the advantage on the open in a lot of cases... ( this does not apply as often in gap ups as gap ups imply run-away prices)... Every little bit helps in avoiding chasing.

Bidding for a price under the open is a risk reducing tactic when the trend has been properly identified as up.

When looking at candles... size is important.... small candles imply low volatility... big  candles imply high volatility.... the rule of thumb is... little candles turn into big candles and big candles turn into little candles... lots of little candles are usually found on a bottom pattern and big candles on a top pattern.... with little candles signaling a change in either case, assuming there is some speculative fundamental to drive the change relative to a high or a low... I'll be re reading this to see if I can make it less confusing, and will likely be back to reproof it, and try and be more articulate in the goal and explanation. Been day dreaming at the keyboard, but, I will say this... once your skill develops in the art of getting the up move right.... you will switch to the practice of buying the end of the day to catch the gap for an advantage in a run up... It is consistent to think that NEXT DAY opens on an uptrend breakout that has not merged into unmanageable volatility will open just above the previous days close... A LOT OF TIMES JUST WITHIN THE TOP TAIL BUT OVER THE PREVIOUS DAYS CLOSE... BIDDING JUST BELOW THE PRICE TODAY AT THE CLOSE OFTEN GETS FILLED DUE TO LOSE HANDS AND ..so anticipating the probability will save you from needless chasing which if you think about it, and your wrong... .actually reduces your risk in almost all cases..... that is at a level of experience though, and new practitioners need to get past a certain amount of experience in watching.... I say watching, because in order to recognize the advantage you are seeing you need to know what you are looking for...

Dave GLTA

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Boxed in the ears SQI.V BUY - .64 to .69

This one has been like a bronc on the bottom... but with the financing at .75 cents the mood seems to be changing.

Very early charting subtleties suggest that last dip to .56 cents was indeed a lucky in for some. The chart in the Public list has some negative commentary as to price direction, and I think I'm on the cusp of having to take it back... so some new update is being annotated this morning... Stockcharts Public List still holding...

In the meantime... put a bollinger to this chart from the indicators... see the squeeze.... this is gonna break one way or the other soon.

You should be able to see the upward slant from left to right

The bid is pretty solid... another pass at the .70's looks in the works.

GLTA Lostoutwest

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Buy - GQC.V .37 to .41 cents

Preliminary Level II and charting on Stockcharts all suggest a run in progress. Update in Stockcharts Public List

GLTA Lostoutwest

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|| Kenuck SmallCap Trader || Korelin Radio || StockCharts You Tube Lessons || Money In Metals || Resource Clips || Stockhouse || Ticker Trax || Bullion Bulls Canada || Lex corp || Track My Trade || National Post || Grandich || Penny Stock Journal || Stockcharts Public List || FreeStockCharts || Gold$eek Drill Results 101 || CBCnews || Seeking Alpha ||
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Test

Just using the page to accesss the links for surfing

GLTA Lostoutwest

If you see the hand mousing over screeen shots... click on screen shots to enlarge them.

After connecting to a link... you should refresh the page by clicking on the Home button or the Web Page title to ensure the latest updated page

|| Kenuck SmallCap Trader || Korelin Radio || StockCharts You Tube Lessons || Money In Metals || Resource Clips || Stockhouse || Ticker Trax || Bullion Bulls Canada || Lex corp || Track My Trade || National Post || Grandich || Penny Stock Journal || Stockcharts Public List || FreeStockCharts || Gold$eek Drill Results 101 || CBCnews || Seeking Alpha ||
Please read our Complete Disclosure

Your gonna have some fun charting

I'm not easily impressed when it comes to free stuff to get you to pay for better stuff, but when the free stuff is just downright great... I have to pass it on.... this next link takes you to a charting platform page which shows a list for a Canadian Stock scan... in the left panel... if not... of Nasdaq stocks in the left panel.... either way... click the one or the other to change it (or just select a stock from that scan) and select something you may prefer to scan for... once the scan completes......left click a stock ticker, and it moves to the chart...

Once that is done.. you can left click a ticker in the chart module, and from there you can chart anything you want... I set it up with some basic indicators... and the time line might be something you want to play with. Have fun!

Freestockcharts.com

 You might want to favorite the page in the Favorites bar at the top of IE for quick surfing later.

Dave - Lostoutwest

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An Interesting Read

Paid Touts

This was Peter Grandich's old home page web site just before he re-started his present blog... quite soon after the Agoracom April poop hit the fan.... Peter jumped the Agoracom ship.... good going Peter ( I remember that moment as if it were today)... now all he has to do is not make any more references to Cannacord.

The article above resides on a blog that is called Penny Stock Journal...

So you think you have seen them all.. but a new profile emerges and I missed it... the site interests me because it hosts spots on some of a few of the recent  best developing issues I have accidentally run into in my surfing for prospects... It rates a 10 for prospecting for momentum small caps and charting the ones that seem to be in the lime light.... of course after doing some DD which they conveniently provide..


GLTA Lostoutwest

After connecting to a link... you should refresh the page by clicking on the Home button or the Web Page title to ensure the latest updated page
Kenuck SmallCap Trader

Korelin Radio

StockCharts You Tube Lessons

Money In Metals

Resource Clips

Stockhouse

Ticker Trax

Bullion Bulls Canada

Lex corp

Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.

National Post

Grandich

StockCharts Public Chart List

CBCnews

Please read our Complete Disclosure

If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.