We have had such strong market conditions that bottom picking has not been an exercise that could be practiced too often... JAG.TO is one we are watching... and now FCO.TO...
Jag.to is testing 5.10 (even though it hasn't -pierced the lower bollinger) and if Fco.to bounces (we have a 98% bounce condition) it will run the same people sentiment pattern that Jag is doing... FCO.to may be a more active bounce...
That sentiment pattern is... that the price will bounce off a particular unknown spot (the bollinger and price will part ways)... price breaking away to the right... possibly rise to the 10... 20 period average or even to the upper bolllinger line.... it will stall and likely retrace back down to test the level where it bounced in the first place... if this was the bottom........ this will also be the lower bollinger which has changed direction...
It has been said that low volume often signifies a bottom and low volume will be signified by the lower bollinger band rounding out some type of bottom itself and the lower bollinger will move to the right and swing up coming to meet the dropping price.... for a double bottom with the lower bollinger touch being the actual bottom most likely on a higher low. The original bounce position is critical, and this spot must not be breached... if the bollinger stays printed down... expect the price to follow until the bollinger shows some signs of rounding up ...(losing volitility).
It is my intent to follow these two stocks real time and catch the move after which they will be frozen to a time period and put into the bottom picking library.
One of the strongest conditions that affect the reversal pattern long term would be the broad market and what it is doing at the time of the individual stock reversal... if the broad market is strong then the stock reversal could be very strong itself........... if the broad market is up, but choppy and weak... the stock reversal may well exhibit characteristics of the broad market...
Charts to follow.
GLTA Lostoutwest
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