Ya Know

I was looking over a few studies on EVG.V, and I saw something I had missed.... (well not really, just didn't mention) I don't think it's relevant as in bad fundamentals, at least not in a negative way, just a very interesting observation... it seems as with a lot of stocks I watch, there was a pretty consistent "Go Away in May" crash, more so this year than many I have experienced in past years. This could be a result of re-positioning the picks in my watch list magically having a consistent theme... or it could have been as a result of the weird rally we have experienced defying most of the traditional seasonal, and market cycles this last 12 months.

My slant is... (and most always is from TA).... two things occurred:

1 - EVG did try and rally from the beginning of April to the end of May, but ran into the 200 day average from below... an occurrence where running into a time tested expected market reaction, concerning a well respected broad market tradition, that in some cases, usually results in at least one attempt of failure is the would be, only likely result.

Considering -

2 - that failure coincides smack dab at the beginning of May... what with the timing... it is pretty consistent with the "Go Away in May" cycle, which, (noteable) in past years to my recollection has not been as severe.

While myself, and other holders of EVG.V were considering all kinds of conspiracy theories... EVG may just have been doing the natural.

It does add a bit of positive swing to the pendulum. As much as I appreciate Grandich's fundamental expertise in the art of solid speculative analysis, I have noticed a distinct frustration in the act of opposites, such that it is always a conundrum to watch the fundamentals, and technicals, swing in different trees.

Irregardless... without a doubt, the pattern emerging is a symmetrical triangle.... there is a time tested breakout in the works... the outcome I believe is bullish, but the true direction of which, will be hind site.

This is an entry point that appears to have respectably low risk considering the fundamentals, provided an acceptable exit strategy is considered, if things go the unlikely path of south.

The reason I'm bullish, is daily observation of the real time selling, and buying patterns in the bid/ask positions of level II. I am witnessing what I call the teardrop effect... the summary of which demonstrates a distinct lack of selling (not hitting the bids resulting in higher lows) accompanied with sporadic buying from the sides relentlessly accumulating the asks. Albiet, one bad NR, and this bottoming pattern could surprise, but I have to speculate on what I see, not what I think.

It seems that when the teardrop effect appears without some type of blocking manipulation... the action is quick from there... My expectation is that any back fills will be aggressively accumulated.

Here's a link to Stockcharts that accurately describes Symmetrical Triangle - note the pattern is a continuation pattern, and in my case, I see the recent down trend (consolidation) as part of a bigger up trend, so that assumption adds fuel to the bullish camp. Others may see it differently, however, I feel they are mistaken. Had this cycle been a few months later, we would likely be seeing much higher prices as the consolidation works itself out. The particularly out of cycle consolidation has been streatched out much more than anticipated in spite of the strong pipeline of gold findings.


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StockCharts Public Chart List

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