On the edge

Both the TSX and Venture are sitting on the edge... it is nail biting... one spook, and the whole works could go flush... still there is lots of volume..

It appears there is enough bulls to sop up the consolidation... it is the time of year that traditionally has been the best 4 out of the next 12... Both the Canadian exchanges are in nose bleed territory... however they could hold for a few months more... churning and spinning to the End of May or sooner... the petrol dollar is still alive so the US dollar still has some life...  I'm starting to see some bounce to gold and silver... this leads to the next few posts in succession.
GLTA Lostoutwest


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I'm seeing broadmarket distribution

Looking at the TSX and Venture in the Stockcharts Public List over the last few weeks there has been a series of hiccups getting closer grouped over time and as such it signals a weakness in the near term broad market uptrend... which is mainly in metals and commodities (gold & silver)... the venture appears more vulnerable...

GLTA Lostoutwest


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On a Thursday a broad market Gap down!!!!!!!!!!

Gap down on the open..... Thursday has been a relief day of a usual course of things.....  A gap down usually signals the closeness of a bounce.... it is a trading bounce, and not to be confused with a solid reverasal.... the type of trade that is successful is an on the cusp buy just at the knifes edge for a ride to reistance in most cases... if you don't sell, then keep the stop tight and take no less than breakeven. Even something you love can drop farther than your wanting if the market spooks and runs.



                                 Dow              Nas             S&P 500

TSX 60            Venture           Nas 100

GLTA Lostoutwest


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A wicked wind this way blows

A quick meander through the Public chart list shows the wisdom of taking some off the table... Gold is being subdued accross the whole watch... which leads to this potential runnaway...

WPX.V Poatash... making a short squeeze reality... may provide opportunity on Monday with a low open because the move was on buy on stops... that means the volume was not made up of exuberant chasers, so the open may not be exuberant.... so a low open is possible meaning the shorts may be wary and if the volume keeps up, it may breakout and shake the shorts confidence....  the fundamentals are pretty decent, and a recent financing though short of the mark.... was pretty solid anyhow... I will be looking for a trade on Monday...

Because buy on stop runs can be quick and whippy... it would not be advisable to chase, but bid low off the open, and be cautious... don't buy a gap............! ........it's bad luck.

Check the ADX Trader Gallery...!

GLTA Lostoutwest


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The TSX and Venture

My own charts in the Stockcharts Public List show the Venture (TSX has had it's day as well) has been a not seen for while ... one way rocket ride... Indicators suggest that the momentum is getting cautious and IMOP if it were not for the traditional perception of the next 4 months typically being the best of the next 12 ... we would be correcting sooner than not... For those not familiar with go away in May... I personally believe we have the oomph to make it to the end of April, but that is where I get cloudy... I think it may be possible to be real exuberant to that point and as such  after ...it will surprise to the downside .................. and I will be  looking to put on a couple of shorts if the broad market (if not)...... then the broad sector........ does it's typical thing about the end of April.

This link takes you to a prediction that mirrors my own instinctive expectation....

9-Market-Predictions-for-2011

GLTA Lostoutwest


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Dollar rallying - Pressuring gold

$USD this link leads to a chart showing the US dollar attempting a rally ... It has been passed around in some well travelled sites... the indicators suggest very poor trending qualities as far as I'm concerned,    however  those who believe the dollar is making a comeback are creating an opportunity for those who are witnessing the pressure on gold....

I for one don't believe this will last, while it is obvious the price is in a trading range, it will likely do nothing but range, major resistance is at the MACD trigger line which happens to be the 200 day average, with the last ranging period failing and making for a new low, however this isn't about predicting... it is about being aware of your surroundings..

The dollar could make a run for a correction in gold... and you should be aware the pot is simmering. What I think, and what takes place, will be hindsight.

GLTA Lostoutwest


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So much for the bear raid...

The toronto and Venture look no worse for the experience, however they are both testing support lines, and supporting indicators suggest there is ample strength to absorb the shakeout for this round. As the bear raid was mainly in gold, other commodities held up...

GLTA Lostoutwest


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Distribution

As yesterday... distribution is heavy on the open with little, if any opens at, or above the close of yesterday in a high percentage of my Level II watch and it is substantial. Chasing will be very dangerous, and costly for most .... buying on the lower end of a lower bollinger touch or support is the strategy... control risk to minmize loss and maximize any gain... both the TSE and Venture are under pressure this morning with the Venture under heavy assult..

GLTA Lostoutwest


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Just so you know...

Your likely not alone in this definitely down morning... just check the watch list...

Watch List ..........it is a sea of red... goes to show broad market influence... switching out and chasing something in this weather is going to be iffy at best.

GLTA Lostoutwest

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The 3 days before New years...

I sit with baited expectations... some of which may gel in the next 3 days .... what with the TSX and Venture in good shape heading into the New Year... These 3 days can be a bit volatile as there are many like me who are jockeying for position....

The New Year January effect sometimes can come in with a whimper the first couple of weeks and is generally reserved for Mid to Large Caps which are the core of the phenomenon, however Small Caps in a bullish broad market will likely see quicker results all around.

With tax selling behind us... even the shorts should run for cover... unless there is an institutional presence behind a favorite issue... most Small Caps in Tout land should see some enthusiasm.

GLTA Lostoutwest


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Santa's Choke Hold re-visited

Volume in my Level II open for a Wednesday is pretty light... it will likely pick up later in the day... but I would expect some whippy action over the next three weeks... It would be prudent to sit on some dry powder, and if you want to buy something... go for support buys to lower risk.. chasing risk has increased.

GLTA Lostoutwest


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New Year Strategy

I must state that playing small caps takes some skill on your part... to recap a couple of pages at the top of the blog........ you need some skill and kahoonas to walk the walk... and you need to move properly to  put yourself in the same position as me... Having said that, I am an amateur who has been involved with small caps for a long time (10 years)... but it in no way gives me the power to make your decisions.

I am going to populate the Public Chart List StockCharts Public Chart List  with some new entries... it will be impossible to comment on them all. Comments will be restricted to only those that have promising chart study characteristics, and just because I am commenting does not mean I am buying whether I get brave and call a buy.

The focus is on strong speculative fundamental concerns... this protects from really major losses... Do not average down unless your powder is dry... averaging down is nothing but bottom picking... albeit with more skin in the game. The death of thousand cuts brings new meaning to the experience.

The start of the process will be to merge them into the list... that takes place in the next half hour...

In the existing list is a couple lottery picks being commented on already.. use caution.

The rest will scatter among some already listed, but  not commented on residents.

Over all... the new entries have some solid speculative fundamentals.... If your looking to find a list with some good prospects, and pick away at your own... Feel free, but do your due diligence.,

GLTA Lostoutwest

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Santa's Choke Hold

I didn't coin the phrase,  but actually picked it up on a SH bull board that describes the next 3 weeks volatility potential almost perfectly. With tax selling, and a need for Christmas purchases, there is potential selling pressure to deal with. In respect of the next 3 weeks into the new Year I  have been doing some serious looking into particularly strong story play stocks that have some some real resource fundamentals, selling for decent prices considering, however until I can watch them on level II... I really can't suggest. I will be going over the list and posting them to the Public Watch List without commentary for the moment. I'm sure some will be recognized immediately, and although the list  goes into the 5.00 range I will be focusing on the under $1.00 mark of which I have at least one request to chart a stock which already appears in the list. For this round of research I may stray outside Canada and the States, but the issues trade on the Venture and Toronto... so easy access.... they will all be in up trends, so this will be a dip picking exercise that may prove up some decent entries during the Santa Choke Hold pressure, (hopefully)..

I'm going to do a bit of stink bidding with lots of heads up room. If I get lucky going into the New year I hear commodities are going to be hot.

GLTA Lostoutwest

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Tuesday Market Picture on the open

A Gap up on Tuesday ...not for a while....If it holds or not..   If wednesday stays the usual bull... this could be good...

Mid Day

                                                                                                                                                              

     

                                                           

Fnish

                                                          

GLTA Lostoutwest

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For what is worth NG

I'm noticing some persistant life in natural gas....

Chartwise for speculation... DEI.V has a pretty interesting chart... (bak to this post later)

GLTA Lostoutwest

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Here we are...

Entering the last few weeks of Tax selling (which will likely ease about the 22 of December and I have to say that it has been a different type of August to December than I can remember in years... I'm trying to make something of it that will work.

Traditionally and I suspect this year won't be any different if I read the bullish Venture and Toronto right, (only the lead up to the market timing has been different) this is the time of year that breaks into the Santa Rally between Dec 25th and Jan 1st... which then leads into the January effect, such that until about the end of April, middle of May for the Go Away in May, is the best time of year for gains to be made in strong speculative stocks, in particular for this year.......... Lithium, Uranium, Copper, Gold, and Silver miners.

If the speculators i follow have their hats on straight, this could be very interesting indeed.

GLTA Lostoutwest

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From Grandich's blog

Canadian Miners 2011

GLTA Lostoutwest

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Distribution

In the most simplest terms is when a price vaults to a new higher position on huge volume and reaches an apex where the majority of the volume smothers the price rise, and beats it back (At that point, it is safe to say, the market (traders... most likely institutional, are selling, or distributing the higher share price to retail investors).... If you are watching Level II you can see the real time action in the levels of bids and asks.    If you have a real time chart, you can see price react to the effect of the distribution by the peak of the price graph as it tops and recedes or spins (envision a candle with a long toppy tail as the result of said price action) at a certain level.

Distribution can also be seen in continuation moves where the supply is washed in surges.



GLTA Lostoutwest

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Markets & EVG.V

Markets appear to be holding; I certainly would have expected the down move to have wiped out a Wednesday and continue into Thursday and Friday... distribution is still heavy.

Grandich will no longer represent EVG.V as of Dec 11 2010...  I hardly think this is worth factoring in as I have seen many ex Grandich clients continue with a life of their own. Technical indicators suggest we are passing through a medium term area of resistance as denoted by the mid term MACD 48,72,24 trigger line where there has been some low volume back fill... however indicators suggest the beginning of this up move is still very much alive.... the surge cycles of buying are showing quicker recoveries... StockCharts Public Chart List (updated)

GLTA Lostoutwest

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Markets 19th Friday

1 good day out of 5 is not so good.  (refering to Wednesday)


GLTA Lostoutwest

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