Fall Rally.......... China new stimulous... should start earlier this year!?
GLTA Lostoutwest
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Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Thursday, May 19, 2011
The "State of the Union"
Probably not a fitting title.... but I like the "state of" part....
I'm seeing a lot of volume which is a double edged sword.... it is a mix of dumping (capitulation) and accumulating that signals a bottom is near, where double bottoms in any issue would be areas of consideration for low risk entry... charts are indicitive of oversold... but dead cats lay everywhere... there could be some thrashing overall however...
A quick look at the Stockcharts Public List shows a very oversold "state of".... and we haven't finished May yet.... Over the holidays the state of the natural condition of the Canadian market will swing to the "vacation state of" mind of the North American continent which includes government officials who would maneuver licenses (gonzo spending taxpayer bonus money on high profile vacations where they cry in their cognac about how they are fighting the good fight and not getting paid enough)... along with many ordinary citizens who should be just about relieved of their money in this downturn to a "state of" they couldn't participate en mass in a rally if they wanted to...
Still there there is enough deep pockets who can manipulate a summer spike on low volume and the hammer it down on profit taking... Bull Bait rallies.
Some issues ... not as many as in a full blown market move... will manage to hold their gain on solid fundamentals, but they will likely have been oversold for months going into the the summer doldrums rather than have been issues that have taken the swan dive bouncing on momentum.
From a short trading perspective this is a slippery slope and any opportunity to take some off the table should be an opportunity not wasted.... In other words the odds of landing on a solid sustained uptrend in a Small Cap is way down as an average to bet the farm on.
It is getting interesting for some attractive buys on solid no debt, cash in the bank, low float, multi project issues heading into the the doldrums for the final stretch coming late August early September. The market, although yet to prove it, is moving into a cycle more apt to trace a more traditional seasonal transition through into next year.... something that may offer a more traditional type of expectation to try and surf... we might be able to plan for a decent tax sell, Santa rally and a January effect more robust than we have just experienced.
Over the next 3 months sweeping out the watch list looking for long holds rising out of the carnage will be a project... keep in mind they will be small Caps and as such have a 90 % chance of being mediocre at best... and anything that is actively placing on foreign soil may be considered, but not acted with confidence on as the middle east is anything but changed for the good. (JMOP)
This is probably moving into "State Of" one the best times to go shopping for solid speculative fundamentals in safe jurisdictions.... this type of "state of" is where the new promotions come out of ( definitely fun to ride) but also where the solid fundamentals are left for the dead... and as the promoters move on to new names... leaves the carnage to develop investor style... which I have seen some real solid moves on sustained up trends bereft of the choppy momentum that trademarks manipulation... As was such demonstrated when the bottom came in on the last downturn... and also included the the last go away in May. The silver lining is close.
GLTA Lostoutwest
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I'm seeing a lot of volume which is a double edged sword.... it is a mix of dumping (capitulation) and accumulating that signals a bottom is near, where double bottoms in any issue would be areas of consideration for low risk entry... charts are indicitive of oversold... but dead cats lay everywhere... there could be some thrashing overall however...
A quick look at the Stockcharts Public List shows a very oversold "state of".... and we haven't finished May yet.... Over the holidays the state of the natural condition of the Canadian market will swing to the "vacation state of" mind of the North American continent which includes government officials who would maneuver licenses (gonzo spending taxpayer bonus money on high profile vacations where they cry in their cognac about how they are fighting the good fight and not getting paid enough)... along with many ordinary citizens who should be just about relieved of their money in this downturn to a "state of" they couldn't participate en mass in a rally if they wanted to...
Still there there is enough deep pockets who can manipulate a summer spike on low volume and the hammer it down on profit taking... Bull Bait rallies.
Some issues ... not as many as in a full blown market move... will manage to hold their gain on solid fundamentals, but they will likely have been oversold for months going into the the summer doldrums rather than have been issues that have taken the swan dive bouncing on momentum.
From a short trading perspective this is a slippery slope and any opportunity to take some off the table should be an opportunity not wasted.... In other words the odds of landing on a solid sustained uptrend in a Small Cap is way down as an average to bet the farm on.
It is getting interesting for some attractive buys on solid no debt, cash in the bank, low float, multi project issues heading into the the doldrums for the final stretch coming late August early September. The market, although yet to prove it, is moving into a cycle more apt to trace a more traditional seasonal transition through into next year.... something that may offer a more traditional type of expectation to try and surf... we might be able to plan for a decent tax sell, Santa rally and a January effect more robust than we have just experienced.
Over the next 3 months sweeping out the watch list looking for long holds rising out of the carnage will be a project... keep in mind they will be small Caps and as such have a 90 % chance of being mediocre at best... and anything that is actively placing on foreign soil may be considered, but not acted with confidence on as the middle east is anything but changed for the good. (JMOP)
This is probably moving into "State Of" one the best times to go shopping for solid speculative fundamentals in safe jurisdictions.... this type of "state of" is where the new promotions come out of ( definitely fun to ride) but also where the solid fundamentals are left for the dead... and as the promoters move on to new names... leaves the carnage to develop investor style... which I have seen some real solid moves on sustained up trends bereft of the choppy momentum that trademarks manipulation... As was such demonstrated when the bottom came in on the last downturn... and also included the the last go away in May. The silver lining is close.
GLTA Lostoutwest
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Wednesday, May 18, 2011
Interesting analogy
Compliments of Jim Jubak.... The silver crash .....
Silver crash
GLTA Lostoutwest
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Silver crash
GLTA Lostoutwest
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Tuesday, May 10, 2011
TKO.TO.......UP on a ringed bottom
Yesterday we had a ringed bottom.... my buy on the Friday was shaken loose in the volatility... such is luck. Picking a bottom for a swing is a different mentality than taking a long position ...
Today pre-open is as high as 5.20 with nothing between it and 4.90, but that should wiggle around just near the open, ........ making a buy 5.20 if it still holds.... at this point is asking for whip... Statistically 4.66 will be tested within a month... Price wise... there is no solid indication that we are witnessing a reversal as much as can be seen in charts... price always moves before indicators... in all cases...
Looking over this chart there is no indication other than an anticipation that we are near a medium term reversal if it develops.... in the meantime a swing is in progress which should regroup (thinking summer doldrums and general market consolidation) for a textbook lower bollinger higher low. If this was to occur late summer it would be all the more solid.
TKO.TO
However a ringed bottom entry point does illustrate a higher than average swing possibility.
A long position would be more with a lower bollinger (higher low) touch or near it to be the ideal conservative spot to move in... TKO is a whippy prospect... and as such the fundamentals are important to maintain a good attitude as it throws u around...
It is my opinion that this would have been a good swing and I would have been selling in this area 5.20 and higher on the toppy signals like a doji candle with churning. A gap like this is asking for some profit taking.
7:24 - 6 minutes before the bell Level II
GLTA Lostoutwest
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Today pre-open is as high as 5.20 with nothing between it and 4.90, but that should wiggle around just near the open, ........ making a buy 5.20 if it still holds.... at this point is asking for whip... Statistically 4.66 will be tested within a month... Price wise... there is no solid indication that we are witnessing a reversal as much as can be seen in charts... price always moves before indicators... in all cases...
Looking over this chart there is no indication other than an anticipation that we are near a medium term reversal if it develops.... in the meantime a swing is in progress which should regroup (thinking summer doldrums and general market consolidation) for a textbook lower bollinger higher low. If this was to occur late summer it would be all the more solid.
TKO.TO
However a ringed bottom entry point does illustrate a higher than average swing possibility.
A long position would be more with a lower bollinger (higher low) touch or near it to be the ideal conservative spot to move in... TKO is a whippy prospect... and as such the fundamentals are important to maintain a good attitude as it throws u around...
It is my opinion that this would have been a good swing and I would have been selling in this area 5.20 and higher on the toppy signals like a doji candle with churning. A gap like this is asking for some profit taking.
7:24 - 6 minutes before the bell Level II
GLTA Lostoutwest
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Friday, May 6, 2011
TKO.
I had a mental stop but put in a real one @ 4.76 and ended up with an out at 4.72... on a small loss.
Lot's of volume on a solid down move end of day with a low finish is a bad candle.
Keep on trying .... Yikes 4.66... ouch.
GLTA Lostoutwest
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Lot's of volume on a solid down move end of day with a low finish is a bad candle.
Keep on trying .... Yikes 4.66... ouch.
GLTA Lostoutwest
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TKO.TO Buy
I made a purchase @ 4.80 this morning... observing the white candle on the chart yesterday was looking at a buyers candle... this is not a ringed candle (three candle pattern) but today it could be... this is an anticipated buy on the cusp... I have a love affair with TKO, so it's a tossup if I will take the pain if it comes or exercise my right to take a loss with a tight mental stop...
I must make it clear that at this point I feel we could take a further slide to the low 4's ( this is still very early in the coming dodrums) and my stop (mental) is a move below $4.70... however in the short term we have a good chance of bouncing into the high 4's and a break above 5.00 into the low to mid 5's might trace out a nice swing and test of the 4.70 mark... however that is speculation...
As an entry point ( lowering risk) anywhere from 4.68 to 4.65 would have been more cutting edge...
I have actually waited for today to feel out the open (the high finish yesterday - a high finish is a strong candle - with the hollow candle is risky to count on... but bullish to start thinking a bounce) and today we opened near yesterday's close (bullish) and dropped to a higher low (bullish so far)... which if it holds today.. completes the 3 candle pattern for a ringed bottom and a potential bounce for a swing... making it undecidedly safe to hold for the weekend (if it was a small cap no money no cash flow I would probably feel different) and possibly get a small gap up on Monday to really make me feel good...
I am definitely taking a chance.... but the action on Level II shows selling still quite active but... I'm also seeing weakness in the down move.... albeit the high finish yesterday on a white candle definitely a buyers day... which if the higher low today holds the ringed low pattern... along with some real time charting at very quick timing frequency using 5day charts and 15 minute to 60 minute time frames... I can see a sold push up attempting...
Glued to the screen describes today's action... a doji finish or a penny or two up over .80 would be very strong... at least for a short term term perspective.
GLTA Lostoutwest
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I must make it clear that at this point I feel we could take a further slide to the low 4's ( this is still very early in the coming dodrums) and my stop (mental) is a move below $4.70... however in the short term we have a good chance of bouncing into the high 4's and a break above 5.00 into the low to mid 5's might trace out a nice swing and test of the 4.70 mark... however that is speculation...
As an entry point ( lowering risk) anywhere from 4.68 to 4.65 would have been more cutting edge...
I have actually waited for today to feel out the open (the high finish yesterday - a high finish is a strong candle - with the hollow candle is risky to count on... but bullish to start thinking a bounce) and today we opened near yesterday's close (bullish) and dropped to a higher low (bullish so far)... which if it holds today.. completes the 3 candle pattern for a ringed bottom and a potential bounce for a swing... making it undecidedly safe to hold for the weekend (if it was a small cap no money no cash flow I would probably feel different) and possibly get a small gap up on Monday to really make me feel good...
I am definitely taking a chance.... but the action on Level II shows selling still quite active but... I'm also seeing weakness in the down move.... albeit the high finish yesterday on a white candle definitely a buyers day... which if the higher low today holds the ringed low pattern... along with some real time charting at very quick timing frequency using 5day charts and 15 minute to 60 minute time frames... I can see a sold push up attempting...
Glued to the screen describes today's action... a doji finish or a penny or two up over .80 would be very strong... at least for a short term term perspective.
GLTA Lostoutwest
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Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Bottom picking TKO.TO 101
Probably the technique for bottom picking TKO.TO would involve an observation of the lowest low ringed bottom in real time... a ringed low reads like this... the first time the following day produces a higher low off a lowest low... you would have the condition of a ringed bottom by the end of the day... the following 4th day after the ringed bottom is visible... the low should not go below the previous days low (which is the third candle in the pattern) and if it does... the ringed low has not occurred... such that until a ringed low is confirmed with a 4th day higher low... you would not enter a trade in anticipation unless you were confident in a cutting edge trade...
A ringed low is a three day candle pattern where the lowest low is marked by a low that is higher on the previous day before and the following day after...
Still.... catching a falling knife requires very tight mental stops and a move and close below a ringed bottom would signal looking for an out of the trade..... the close below a ringed bottom is not good.... try to break even if possible... but do something to go safe. You may get some whip... to not expect whip is very amateurish... the whip will translate into small loss trades.... better than a long ride down.
Let's suppose you catch an on the cusp real time ringed bottom that shows some profit... expect a swing top and retest of ringed bottom low in over 90 percent of the trades.... the test of the ringed low bottom if it is tested within days makes it a suspect.... a move to breach the low for those in love should be regarded as potential test of your love....
The reality is.... catching a falling knife requires as much luck as skill and the better a person is at it... the less tries you will have to make in doing the trade........... so you must practice a minimal loss strategy that handles the potential whip... which suites your pocket book...
This link TKO.TO takes you to an updated chart that demonstrates a succession of new lows daily...
There is no ringed bottom as of this post.
Check this chart out for an easy view of many ringed bottoms that fit the above description to a "T" JAG.TO
GLTA Lostoutwest
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A ringed low is a three day candle pattern where the lowest low is marked by a low that is higher on the previous day before and the following day after...
Still.... catching a falling knife requires very tight mental stops and a move and close below a ringed bottom would signal looking for an out of the trade..... the close below a ringed bottom is not good.... try to break even if possible... but do something to go safe. You may get some whip... to not expect whip is very amateurish... the whip will translate into small loss trades.... better than a long ride down.
Let's suppose you catch an on the cusp real time ringed bottom that shows some profit... expect a swing top and retest of ringed bottom low in over 90 percent of the trades.... the test of the ringed low bottom if it is tested within days makes it a suspect.... a move to breach the low for those in love should be regarded as potential test of your love....
The reality is.... catching a falling knife requires as much luck as skill and the better a person is at it... the less tries you will have to make in doing the trade........... so you must practice a minimal loss strategy that handles the potential whip... which suites your pocket book...
This link TKO.TO takes you to an updated chart that demonstrates a succession of new lows daily...
There is no ringed bottom as of this post.
Check this chart out for an easy view of many ringed bottoms that fit the above description to a "T" JAG.TO
GLTA Lostoutwest
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