on EVG... I'm liking the price action this morning on level II... the volume dropped off and along with it, my fear of a wave making spike waned.... I would much prefer the price to make a sideways or restricted rise in this area so that we can wash out the 200 day average weak hands that have been following the price down through the consolidation, selling the tops... we need to replace them with strong hands buying the back fills. If that happens a true trend reversal could grow, and finally twist the top off.
The chart pattern is looking strong, and the natural wave motion of the back fills could crest down as low as .82 cents... before the pattern really confirms... On the other hand, if we can break $1.00 ... the support should move up into the low .90s. I will be updating the Stock Charts Public list with suitable observations for the reversal progress I think I see. StockCharts Public Chart List
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Monday, November 1, 2010
Levell II
Level II can be used against you... don't count out the possibility... but it can also work for you... and it's not as complicated to interpret as you might think, if focusing the effort on the right aspects.
Level II shows the bid and ask and depth on each side, as in up or down at the different levels of bidding or asks.
So you have levell II... Look for selling or buying... hard hitting from the side lines in either direction is easy to see if your watching... look at the bids for support or resistance... make a speculation... but pay more attention to the exuberance coming in from the side to be the action of choice to act on. Support and resistance blocks (even with seemingly impenetrable depth) can have a reverse effect buy drawing out the bigger action, acting as bait rather than giving confidence in support or resistance as first thought.
If the hitting from the side is hard enough, and in large enough chunks to waste a block in either direction... it will soon become apparent that the movement to watch comes from the side lines... not the strong hands that bid or sell on the platform. Pretty good clue as to the trend in either direction when matched up with technical charting. The reason for this last few posts is that in order to catch the action if it develops as per EVG.V... you need to watch and be looking at the right thing to catch the dance for use in other issues.
Sentiment buying in action.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
Level II shows the bid and ask and depth on each side, as in up or down at the different levels of bidding or asks.
So you have levell II... Look for selling or buying... hard hitting from the side lines in either direction is easy to see if your watching... look at the bids for support or resistance... make a speculation... but pay more attention to the exuberance coming in from the side to be the action of choice to act on. Support and resistance blocks (even with seemingly impenetrable depth) can have a reverse effect buy drawing out the bigger action, acting as bait rather than giving confidence in support or resistance as first thought.
If the hitting from the side is hard enough, and in large enough chunks to waste a block in either direction... it will soon become apparent that the movement to watch comes from the side lines... not the strong hands that bid or sell on the platform. Pretty good clue as to the trend in either direction when matched up with technical charting. The reason for this last few posts is that in order to catch the action if it develops as per EVG.V... you need to watch and be looking at the right thing to catch the dance for use in other issues.
Sentiment buying in action.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
SH Public Watch-List
Recently I took a deep breath and punched up a watch list, that at first I was apprehensive in doing as it would show something I may have wanted to be private... as luck would have it, the market was running and a monkey could throw darts and make good picks... it helped a bit, that I did have some experience.
Unbeknown st at the time of punching it up though, was that it would turn into a visionary tool that I had long been losing out on out of fear, seems the portfolio watch list (and I suspect other site watch lists have the same quality) shows the overall % rise of the individual stocks, with a reversal column that measures the back fill... Duh! In an simplistic way this particular watch list is pretty basic compared to others, but that simplicity is definitely a pound of cure.
We often talk about back fill, which is an easy word to define as low volume selling in an up trend, usually intraday, sometimes expanding to pennants or flags, that occurs as a normal transfer of shares in the quieter times, where exuberance is under a leash; healthy and necessary.
I had never found an effective tool or method of measuring back fill against the performance of the up trend. 10 YEARS AT THIS AND THAT IS PATHETIC. One of the easiest methods to measure your style, choice of issues and finally a big picture look at the state of the market in the sector of your choice.
Not that I haven't held my own, just that I never had run across it being passed on as a noteworthy side benefit in all my travels.
I recommend putting up a chart list in SH... it will be an eye opener!
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
Unbeknown st at the time of punching it up though, was that it would turn into a visionary tool that I had long been losing out on out of fear, seems the portfolio watch list (and I suspect other site watch lists have the same quality) shows the overall % rise of the individual stocks, with a reversal column that measures the back fill... Duh! In an simplistic way this particular watch list is pretty basic compared to others, but that simplicity is definitely a pound of cure.
We often talk about back fill, which is an easy word to define as low volume selling in an up trend, usually intraday, sometimes expanding to pennants or flags, that occurs as a normal transfer of shares in the quieter times, where exuberance is under a leash; healthy and necessary.
I had never found an effective tool or method of measuring back fill against the performance of the up trend. 10 YEARS AT THIS AND THAT IS PATHETIC. One of the easiest methods to measure your style, choice of issues and finally a big picture look at the state of the market in the sector of your choice.
Not that I haven't held my own, just that I never had run across it being passed on as a noteworthy side benefit in all my travels.
I recommend putting up a chart list in SH... it will be an eye opener!
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
Breaking the 200 day moving average #2
The 200 day average, is an average that has historical habit built into it from way back... most chartists revere it, mostly I think because human nature seems to have a certain limit of patience, or exuberance invested in this line drawn in the sand.. Financing, growth, and getting it right seem to work to completion within this time line... If there is enough momentum to break it, then in most cases one could assume that as a reasonable measure of supply and demand, depending on the direction from which the price is coming, that it has proven to be accurate in assessing for a large, long tested time, a pretty accurate guess at touching the elusive estimate - is there more demand than supply... or the other way around... comes within acceptable speculation limits.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
Sunday, October 31, 2010
Breaking the 200 day moving average
could be a bit spikey, and a resulting consolidation to the lower bollinger, and bouncing off the 200 day SMA would be textbook sentiment buying.... watch for it as a chasing point of entry if the 200 gets broken in exuberation. The EVG bottoming pattern is very similar to DML's pattern on the breakout.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
Ya Know
I was looking over a few studies on EVG.V, and I saw something I had missed.... (well not really, just didn't mention) I don't think it's relevant as in bad fundamentals, at least not in a negative way, just a very interesting observation... it seems as with a lot of stocks I watch, there was a pretty consistent "Go Away in May" crash, more so this year than many I have experienced in past years. This could be a result of re-positioning the picks in my watch list magically having a consistent theme... or it could have been as a result of the weird rally we have experienced defying most of the traditional seasonal, and market cycles this last 12 months.
My slant is... (and most always is from TA).... two things occurred:
1 - EVG did try and rally from the beginning of April to the end of May, but ran into the 200 day average from below... an occurrence where running into a time tested expected market reaction, concerning a well respected broad market tradition, that in some cases, usually results in at least one attempt of failure is the would be, only likely result.
Considering -
2 - that failure coincides smack dab at the beginning of May... what with the timing... it is pretty consistent with the "Go Away in May" cycle, which, (noteable) in past years to my recollection has not been as severe.
While myself, and other holders of EVG.V were considering all kinds of conspiracy theories... EVG may just have been doing the natural.
It does add a bit of positive swing to the pendulum. As much as I appreciate Grandich's fundamental expertise in the art of solid speculative analysis, I have noticed a distinct frustration in the act of opposites, such that it is always a conundrum to watch the fundamentals, and technicals, swing in different trees.
Irregardless... without a doubt, the pattern emerging is a symmetrical triangle.... there is a time tested breakout in the works... the outcome I believe is bullish, but the true direction of which, will be hind site.
This is an entry point that appears to have respectably low risk considering the fundamentals, provided an acceptable exit strategy is considered, if things go the unlikely path of south.
The reason I'm bullish, is daily observation of the real time selling, and buying patterns in the bid/ask positions of level II. I am witnessing what I call the teardrop effect... the summary of which demonstrates a distinct lack of selling (not hitting the bids resulting in higher lows) accompanied with sporadic buying from the sides relentlessly accumulating the asks. Albiet, one bad NR, and this bottoming pattern could surprise, but I have to speculate on what I see, not what I think.
It seems that when the teardrop effect appears without some type of blocking manipulation... the action is quick from there... My expectation is that any back fills will be aggressively accumulated.
Here's a link to Stockcharts that accurately describes Symmetrical Triangle - note the pattern is a continuation pattern, and in my case, I see the recent down trend (consolidation) as part of a bigger up trend, so that assumption adds fuel to the bullish camp. Others may see it differently, however, I feel they are mistaken. Had this cycle been a few months later, we would likely be seeing much higher prices as the consolidation works itself out. The particularly out of cycle consolidation has been streatched out much more than anticipated in spite of the strong pipeline of gold findings.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
My slant is... (and most always is from TA).... two things occurred:
1 - EVG did try and rally from the beginning of April to the end of May, but ran into the 200 day average from below... an occurrence where running into a time tested expected market reaction, concerning a well respected broad market tradition, that in some cases, usually results in at least one attempt of failure is the would be, only likely result.
Considering -
2 - that failure coincides smack dab at the beginning of May... what with the timing... it is pretty consistent with the "Go Away in May" cycle, which, (noteable) in past years to my recollection has not been as severe.
While myself, and other holders of EVG.V were considering all kinds of conspiracy theories... EVG may just have been doing the natural.
It does add a bit of positive swing to the pendulum. As much as I appreciate Grandich's fundamental expertise in the art of solid speculative analysis, I have noticed a distinct frustration in the act of opposites, such that it is always a conundrum to watch the fundamentals, and technicals, swing in different trees.
Irregardless... without a doubt, the pattern emerging is a symmetrical triangle.... there is a time tested breakout in the works... the outcome I believe is bullish, but the true direction of which, will be hind site.
This is an entry point that appears to have respectably low risk considering the fundamentals, provided an acceptable exit strategy is considered, if things go the unlikely path of south.
The reason I'm bullish, is daily observation of the real time selling, and buying patterns in the bid/ask positions of level II. I am witnessing what I call the teardrop effect... the summary of which demonstrates a distinct lack of selling (not hitting the bids resulting in higher lows) accompanied with sporadic buying from the sides relentlessly accumulating the asks. Albiet, one bad NR, and this bottoming pattern could surprise, but I have to speculate on what I see, not what I think.
It seems that when the teardrop effect appears without some type of blocking manipulation... the action is quick from there... My expectation is that any back fills will be aggressively accumulated.
Here's a link to Stockcharts that accurately describes Symmetrical Triangle - note the pattern is a continuation pattern, and in my case, I see the recent down trend (consolidation) as part of a bigger up trend, so that assumption adds fuel to the bullish camp. Others may see it differently, however, I feel they are mistaken. Had this cycle been a few months later, we would likely be seeing much higher prices as the consolidation works itself out. The particularly out of cycle consolidation has been streatched out much more than anticipated in spite of the strong pipeline of gold findings.
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
Friday, October 29, 2010
Buy - EVG.V .80 to .85 cents ASAP
EVG.V is demonstrating a trend reversal potential by squeezing the 200 day average in a narrowed bollinger setting... Level II is showing a build up of support on the bid side, with glimpses off surge buying from the sides, and low volume back fill creeping upward of the mid ......70s higher low... I call it the teardrop effect.
The risk is low, and support is proven... only wait is the one for the pop... or sell on stop under .75
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
The risk is low, and support is proven... only wait is the one for the pop... or sell on stop under .75
GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader
Stockhouse
Track My Trade - this is a link to an off site I follow, and have no affiliation with.
National Post
Grandich
StockCharts Public Chart List
CBCnews
Please read our Complete Disclosure
If you see the hand... click on screen shots to enlarge them.
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