Lower Bollinger skid

There has been a lot of buy signals on this lower bollinger touch, and I have pointed them out, but the crucial aspect is that even with all the buy signals...  If the Trend is down and we have broken the support trendline.... watchout for a lower bollinger skid...

Here is another signal... Price moving to the right side, and below to the right of a dropping lower bollinger.

This is bearish and suggests a lower bollinger skid. Trade with caution.

Being that if the trend is down, and support.... being it was support previously, is now resistance, we must adopt a strategy of selling tops at resistance... it is highly unlikely that a price will survive above the newlevel of resistance for long unless it moves on news.

Trend up... look for continuations,... buy dips

Trend ranging... look for top and lower bollinger touches to play. Buy dips - sell tops.

Trend down... look for continuations,... sell tops (Short).

Watch for more crosses on level II means institutional interference..

GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader

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PDN.TO

The open was as expected... above the open of yesterday... but not as enthusiastic as I would have liked, but on the other side... not volatile, and the volume is low and should stay low... We need to stay above yesterday's open, being it is Tuesday and as well, all indexs are barely green.

OOOPs.. just saw a 100k cross... 44 minutes into the trading day... let's see what happens.

Keep in mind we have broken support at 3.60... The trend is down... Resistance is 3.60 to 3.65...



GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader

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Crosses

I'm sure you're aware of them, and if you use Level II then you may have seen them.

The reason they exist is... business as usual, but the question is... What is business as usual?

I have asked this question of many people who should be able to give a knowledgeable answer... however, all I have gotten is guesses.

Considering that normal non-professional traders don't have the option, then we have to rightly assume it is commercial traders.

The purpose of trading short or long is to gain percentage = dollars.

My experience with crosses is that... soon after a cross... I have almost always seen selling pressure on the ask. If I had the power to cross... I would cross in the position and timing of the cross I have seen many crosses occur.

Many Level II watchers speculate a cross indicates accumulation by commercial traders, but I think that such a speculation is flawed. Commercial traders are privy to insider information, and better technically superior trading tools.

Logic dictates they have already loaded up and are only interested in selling supply into strength, and have the skill to see a bounce and load up for dumping into bounces, or are parcticing short selling, or naked short selling.

GLTA Lostoutwest
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Mindset

I took another bite out of Paladin.

I'm using the left and right hand of the devil to make the call.

All the indexes I watch are green.

We saw a finish near the low of Friday 3.43 and an open of 3.50 Monday.

One of the characteristics of a bounce is the absence of a gap down on the following day, where the previous finish was a strong close down.

This absence of a gap down is a sign of bear weakness.

The close down on Friday signaled a mediocre day at best, with an expected open on Monday at/or near the 3.43, but a drop under 3.43 by the end of the following day(Monday)none the less. This open near 3.43 didn't happen on the open, we opened above the open of Friday. It is possible this ringed candle set may prove good for a trade into Wednesday or a longer view with a mental stop of 3.43... If we blast that, I can say for sure we will likely see 3.00.

I'll say that again... we Opened Monday above the OPEN of Friday. This type of price action reminds me of the last of a stream of teardrops. You'll probably have to think about that...LOL... The crying is over and the teardrops are drying up.

WE have pierced the lower bollinger two days consecutive before Friday. A pierce most always indicates a reverse motion. The ringed candle set will likely be tested soon and the conservative way to trade would be for the test to be showing a double ringed candle set bouncing off the turning up lower bollinger. This is not the kind of trade you should turn your back on.

We have a really oversold ringed candle set, relative to a long decline.

Looking good for a trade considering we are on the lower bollinger and have the left and right hand of the "DAILY" devil in position.

The RSI is placed, but we have yet to see a signal from the MACD.

Moving to the 60 minute time frame... we have the signals loud and clear.




I use the 60 minute to anticipate the daily.

I'm not saying this is a reversal, more so than it is a reaction bounce if it takes hold. The trend is down.

The characteristic of a bounce is that it builds on higher lows and to feel confident that we will see a higher low tomorrow... we need to see a strong close by the end of the day.

This candle forming needs to stay strong past the first 4 hours.

The next characteristic of a bounce is that we should open tomorrow above today's open at worst, and should close on a higher close.

In PDN.TO's case, On bounces... this stock has a habit of gapping up on the open and selling off to just above the previous day's close and shaping a lower shadow... finishing Up... UP.... on a doji or hollow candle for the day. It climbs on these types of open gaps. Sometimes it just gaps on each open... Big dips make for big runs.

Lower volume may signal a bounce entry. No Crosses means no House manipulating.

As soon as I saw the higher open, I waited for the lower shadow to start forming to make a buy closer to 3.43, but instead the open started rising so I moved in quick and took at 3.51.

I have a very tight mental stop and if we move to break the open before the first 4 hours... I will abandon the trade.

Picking an entry on a falling knife requires very small loss tolerance, breaking even on weakness is desirable.

Really strong moves show strength early.

Resistance is the top of Thursday's candle (3.60), and a shadow above that would be looking good.

If you have a longer view of PDN and could tolerate some chop, then 3.43 is your downside trigger. Look for higher volume to take you there...

Level II is showing low volume minus crosses.

Crosses add significantly to the downside volume that usually indicate further downside as houses load up to dump the price lower on intra day highs. I see numerous 100 to 300 share trades which indicates computer trading to me.

I think this a good showing for a Monday and look to see if the indexes sell off on Wednesday.

It would be a good thing for this to gap up tomorrow and signal I didn't catch a falling knife for at least until Thursday.

I think getting over 3.80 will be tough, but who knows, unless the broad market supplies the support, this is just a bounce until proven different, and a sell the top if you catch a bounce, is the strategy, or cut losses as close to break even, like a gorilla.


GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader

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URC watch

URC still shows no signs of significant positive divergence, and with Canaccord manipulating the price at will... in a continued broad market sell off... don't chase, as the momentum to pull out of the hole will need to be extremely motivational along with the supply having been extremely low in numbers... spikes will sell off dramatically in a broad market sell off as traders try to balance out losses on bad trades.


GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader

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Grandich

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Paladin watch

One hour into the trading day and 2.5 million shares on a gap down. Yipes!

Were ready for reaction bounce soon... a good trading opportunity... if you make a trade or are holding and see this bounce/// unless you see a broad market reversal to go with it, I would watch for a top and take an exit if an evaluation suggests.

All the studies in TA I am doing suggest further downside. The only positive I can safely say is... "It always gets coldest just before the dawn".

We have broken support on a triple bottom and the next level of support that provides itself visibility is just under 3.00 dollars. Resistance has now moved to 3.60 to 3.65


GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader

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I think it's Official

For the most part, we will see a continued sell off ... Wednesday's index watch smacks of institutional selling, and associated panic selling on the open for most small cap issues I follow. Wednesday should be a day of advance, instead, it is a day of retreat... while it may be early in the day to make such a call, the prospect of a rally into Thursday and Friday is slipping away quickly. Thursday and Friday have at the best of times offered limited averaging success when taking a position for advances unless that position was distinctively a dip. Any rallies will be sold into. Go with the flow. Preservation of cash is in order as a major consideration to implement as a realistic strategy, not to abandon the market, but, it can be safely said that when in doubt, it is better to sit on a pile of cash... You can always buy back in... wiser and safer.

Particular strong fundamentals for certain stocks has slowed the reaction of their price to the broad market move and some of them may buck the trend. In such cases trading opportunities for already oversold issues may take place. However, rallies have a likely potential to sold into by traders as they try and take a cash position and balance losses on other issues... A broad market sell off will take many casualties with it who have weak skills in technical analysis and fundamental analysis.

Institutional sellers have the savy and leverage to take short positions, with loopholes providing avenues to participate in naked short selling without reppercussion unless under extreme scrutiny.

This a slippery slope.





GLTA Lostoutwest
Kenuck SmallCap Trader

National Post

Grandich

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